[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 282319
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON 28 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 3N20W EQ30W EQ50W.  ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF 3N17W...4N28W AND 1N33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WELL-DEFINED CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE THE E UNITED
STATES CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR E NC WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH
TRAILING SWD THRU THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF.
LIFT/DYNAMICS ARE MOST IMPRESSIVE N OF THE AREA WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED TSTMS N OF CUBA WITHIN 45 NM OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT FROM 31N76W THRU THE NW BAHAMAS TO HAVANA INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN.  EARLIER STATIONARY FRONT HAS DISSIPATED ALONG THE E
SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRES.  WEAK 1016 MB HIGH IS NEAR 24N75W
PROVIDING A BRIEF SHOT OF DRY CONTINENTAL AIR THROUGH THE ENTIRE
GULF.  HOWEVER.. RETURN FLOW SHOULD BEGIN ALONG THE TEXAS COAST
BY LATE TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO FLORIDA.  SLOWLY
INCREASING MOISTURE VALUES ARE LIKELY FOR THE W GULF WHICH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS NEAR
LOUISIANA OFFSHORE WATERS FOR LATE THU.  THESE TSTMS WILL
LIKELY BE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA ON THU...
SWEEPING ACROSS THE GULF AND BE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN BY LATE
SAT.  FOR NOW THE FORECAST APPEARS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS STORM
WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION LIMITED TO THE N AND NE GULF.

CARIBBEAN...
A MODERATE COLD FRONT PUSHING SEWD OVER THE GULF HAS FINALLY
BROKEN THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS WHICH HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN.  THE FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS THRU W CUBA SSW INTO S
BELIZE WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WITHIN 60
NM OF THE FRONT.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN FURTHER AS THE
ATTENDANT UPPER TROUGH IS LIFTING NEWD AWAY FROM THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT BECOMES
STATIONARY TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE OVER THE AREA...STRONG MID/UPPER
RIDGING PREVAILS ANCHORED BY A WELL-DEFINED UPPER HIGH NEAR
12N77W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IS CREATING A STABLE
PATTERN ALOFT LIMITED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY.  THERE ARE
SOME SHOWERS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND THIS AREA SHOULD BE FAVORED FOR TRADEWIND
SHOWERS.  GENERALLY DRY PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK
WITH A COLD FRONT POSSIBLY ENTERING THE NW REGION LATE SAT.

ATLANTIC...
STRONG CUTOFF LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE E UNITED STATES WITH
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT FROM 31N76W INTO THE NW BAHAMAS. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF FRONT N OF
29N AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE 60 NM AHEAD OF FRONT S OF 29N. THE
STRONGEST TSTMS WILL CLIP THE N PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG 30N
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE FRONT SLIDES EWD EXTENDING FROM
BERMUDA TO THE S BAHAMAS BY TUE AFTERNOON.  WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FRONT TO 24N.
SHIFTING EWD...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE CONTROLS THE SW ATLC WITH
AXIS FROM HISPANIOLA NE TO JUST E OF BERMUDA INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.  A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC
BETWEEN 30W-55W ALL THE WAY S TO 10N WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH...REMNANT FRONT... ENTERING THE AREA ALONG 31N34W SW TO
22N50W. SECOND SURGE/COLD FRONT IS NOW ENTERING THE AREA NEAR
31N37W SW TO 27N44W 27N50W 30N56W.  CONSIDERABLY COOLER AIR IS
BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH SHIPS REPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S.   WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE N OF 27N FROM 30W-47W
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
BEHIND THE FRONT IN COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS.  OVER THE E
ATLC...A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE PREVAILS WITH THE UPPER PORTION OF
THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM W AFRICA NEAR MAURITANIA TO 2N40W.  AT
THE SURFACE...RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO
20N40W.  THE TYPICAL SUBTROPICAL HIGH REMAINS WEAKER AND
DISPLACED WELL E OF ITS AVERAGE POSITION... CONTINUING THE TREND
OF WEAKER-THAN-AVERAGE TRADES IN THE TROPICAL ATLC. VERY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE LIMITING SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION AND
ITCZ ACTIVITY REMAINS CONFINED NEAR THE EQUATOR.

$$
BLAKE

WWWW
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