[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251806
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI 25 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N30W 1N50W .  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM EQ-6N BETWEEN 13W-25W. WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 26W-40W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 2S-2N BETWEEN 40W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND RETREAT N AND NOW LIES
OVER THE FLORIDA GEORGIA BOARD...EXTENDS SW ALONG THE ALABAMA
MISSISSIPPI COAST AND THEN NW TO OVER THE LOUISIANA TEXAS
BOARDER TO NEAR PORT ARTHUR TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM IS
PROVIDING DYNAMICAL SUPPORT WHILE THE FRONT SERVES AS A LIFTING
MECHANISM USING MOISTURE-RICH AIR FROM THE SE GULF. A LINE OF
NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ACCOMPANIES THE
FRONT AND REMAIN MOSTLY OVER LAND FROM JACKSONVILLE FL W TO OVER
TALLAHASSEE.  ELSEWHERE...WSW UPPER FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
REGION AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH LOCATED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
NEAR 13N91W. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY
INTO THE NW GULF OVERNIGHT SUN. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG/POSSIBLY
SEVERE TSTMS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.

CARIBBEAN...
MID/UPPER HIGH NEAR 13N92W CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA.
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
LIMITED WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.  A
FRONT MAY TO EFFECT THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE MON WITH POSSIBLE
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS.

ATLANTIC...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN ATLC EXTENDING FROM NEAR 30N55W
TO 25N68W.  ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N
OF 28N.  UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MID-LATITUDES PROVIDES THE
UPPER SUPPORT FOR THESE TSTMS.  MID/UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE
CENTRAL ATLC WITH GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NE ATLC.
FURTHER SOUTH MID/UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO WEAKEN IN THE DEEP
TROPICS.  THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS ORIENTED FROM NEAR THE CANARY
ISLANDS TO A 1021 MB CENTER NEAR 25N45W W TO 21N60W WITH TYPICAL
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS MISSING OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC. THE NEARLY
CLOUD-FREE CONDITIONS OF THE FAR TROPICAL E ATLC REMAINS.

$$
JP/JR


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net