[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU 24 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 5N20W 1N30W 1N40W 1S50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA
FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 7W-11W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 12W-16W...BETWEEN 34W-39W...AND
BETWEEN 42W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WARM FRONT AT 2100 UTC EXTENDS FROM NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N90W TO CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.
THE FRONT IS MOVING N TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. WINDS ARE
FROM THE S S OF THE FRONT AND FROM THE ESE N OF THE FRONT.  WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE FOUND THROUGHOUT THE GULF DUE TO RETURN FLOW
FROM THE 1024 MB HIGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC AT 25N52W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH A BAND OF PACIFIC MOISTURE AND OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE N GULF N OF 24N.  THE GULF S OF 24N HAS MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT...THE WARM FRONT TO BE INLAND FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO E TEXAS IN 24 HOURS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN...
THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND A 1010 MB LOW OVER N
COLOMBIA IS PRODUCING E TO ESE SURFACE FLOW THROUGHOUT THE
CARIBBEAN.  NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA FROM
9N-11N BETWEEN 72W-75W...AND SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER COSTA RICA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN
83W-85W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE ANTICYCLONIC TURNING IS OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.  ESE FLOW IS OVER NE VENEZUELA AND SW
FLOW IS OVER PUERTO RICO.  MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  EXPECT THE SURFACE WINDS AND LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC...
THE POTENT S STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE
GLFMEX AND S UNITED STATES YESTERDAY HAS LIFTED NEWD OFF THE E
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND INTO THE SUBTROPICAL W ATLC.
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TRAILS SWD ENTERING THE AREA NEAR BERMUDA
THEN WEAKENING TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ALONG 32N65W 23N76W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 300 NM
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 28N. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE
DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS
AWAY FROM THE AREA. ONLY A WEAK PUSH OF MID-LATITUDE AIR
ACCOMPANIES THE COLD FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN
ITS WAKE MERELY RETURNING TO SEASONABLE VALUES.  THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SEWD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM
30N50W TO 24N70W BY FRI AFTERNOON. THE 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS AT 25N52W.  ELSEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL
TO E ATLC...E/W ORIENTED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PREVAILS
WITH MEAN AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG 15N.  COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA AT
32N16W NW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS EXTENDING SWD TO 23N27W THEN
DIFFUSE TO 21N37W.  THE FRONT IS ESSENTIALLY MOISTURE STARVED
WITH ONLY A VERY NARROW BAND OF SCATTERED SHALLOW TOPPED SHOWERS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE.  SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FRONT...VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS
ORIGINATING FROM AFRICA PENETRATING WELL INTO THE TROPICAL E
ATLC. THIS AIRMASS IS SUPPRESSING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WITH
ITCZ CONVECTION RESTRICTED TO ALONG THE EQUATOR.

$$
FORMOSA



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