[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 241150
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU 24 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 5N20W 1N29W 2N35W ACROSS THE
EQUATOR NEAR 40W TO INLAND OVER S AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF 7N ACROSS THE EQUATOR E OF
20W TO BEYOND THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF 3N W OF 25W TO
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE FAR E GULF AND FLORIDA HAS MOVED
INTO THE W ATLC WHICH LEAVES ALMOST ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE GULF IN ITS WAKE. RIDGING OVER MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES IS MOVING INTO THE W GULF W OF 90W. YET ANOTHER
POTENT S STREAM SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE SW
UNITED STATES THAT WILL CLIP THE SE UNITED STATES AND N GULF
TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS
FLORIDA FROM JUST S OF DAYTONA BEACH INTO THE GULF NEAR TAMPA
ALONG 23N88W PULLING UP AS A WARM FRONT TO INLAND OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N90W. MODERATE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS NOW
COVERS THE E GULF INCLUDING FLORIDA WHICH WILL BRING DRYING
CONDITIONS TO THE STATE.

CARIBBEAN...
PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA
EXTENDING E/W ALONG 13N/14N. THE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A
WELL-DEFINED UPPER HIGH OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N64W. THE
RIDGE IS EFFECTIVELY BLOCKING THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
ADVANCING ACROSS THE GULF. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING
GENERATED BY A WEAK 1010 MB LOW INLAND OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
COLOMBIA AND ARE MOVING OVER PANAMA AND ALONG THE COASTS S OF
10N W OF 80W. OTHERWISE...VERY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO RESTRICT SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA SAVE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH THE E
TRADES.

ATLANTIC...
POTENT S STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED INTO THE NW ATLC WITH THE
COLD FRONT ENTERING THE W ATLC NEAR 32N76W ACROSS FLORIDA JUST S
OF DAYTONA BEACH. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
MOVING RAPIDLY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND ARE CURRENTLY APPROACHING
BERMUDA. HIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NW THIS MORNING
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LEAVING ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE BAHAMAS THEN RAPIDLY CLEARING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BY FRI WITH ONLY A NARROW BAND OF POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG ITS LEADING EDGE. ELSEWHERE...THE PATTERN
CONTINUES TO BECOME AMPLIFIED AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N27W SW TO A BASE
NEAR 22N34W. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N34W
TRAILING SW TO 23N34W THEN DISSIPATES TO 22N39W. THE FRONT IS
MOISTURE STARVED WITH ONLY A NARROW BAND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 90/120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. STRONGER
DYNAMICS/LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO CLIP THE EXTREME N PORTION OF THE
AREA...N OF 27N...DURING TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE REACHES ITS
SOUTHERNMOST POSITION. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS AND VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS MOVING OFF W AFRICA
ARE LARGELY SUPPRESSING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA.
DRY AIR PENETRATES WELL INTO THE TROPICAL WATERS RESTRICTING
ITCZ CONVECTION S OF 5N.

$$
WALLACE



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