[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 240003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED 23 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N7W 2N15W 3N25W EQ40W EQ50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N
BETWEEN 3W-7W...AND FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 12W-15W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 18W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ALONG 30N82W 25N87W 19N92W MOVING SLOWLY E.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT TO 81W FROM
24N-30N OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA.  A 1018 MB HIGH OVER OKLAHOMA IS
RIDGING HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT.  MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
BEHIND THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH
AXIS ALONG 30N88W 17N93W.  A 100+ KT UPPER JET IS OVER THE SE
UNITED STATES.  EXPECT CURRENT STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT CLEARS S
FLORIDA TONIGHT BRING A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE NEAR SUMMER LIKE
CONDITIONS YESTERDAY AND TODAY.  THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS THU MORNING AND WILL BEGIN
TO RETREAT NWD THU AND FRI.  WARM/MOIST CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
ACROSS THE S HALF OF THE GULF AND S FLORIDA AS THE FRONT LIFTS
NWD.

CARIBBEAN...
THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN IS PRESENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE TO
STRONG SURFACE TRADEWINDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE ABC ISLANDS.
CONVECTION IS SPARSE HOWEVER.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 86W-88W...
AND IS INLAND OVER HONDURAS FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 87W-89W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM
8N-11N.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED OVER THE N COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N70W.  A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS W TO NICARAGUA ALONG 11N.  EXPECT...THE RIDGE TO
EFFECTIVELY BLOCK THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ADVANCING
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT MAY SPARK A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND N
GUATEMALA TONIGHT AND EARLY THU.  OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC...
1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N59W.  A COLD FRONT
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N33W 28N40W 26N48W.  A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N30W 26N40W 24N48W.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH.  A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 26N24W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC BETWEEN 60W-80W WITH AXIS ALONG 70W.  AN
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION W OF BERMUDA FROM 29N-33N BETWEEN 69W-73W.  A TROUGH
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-60W.  A RIDGE
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC AND W AFRICA N OF 20N BETWEEN 5W-30W.

$$
FORMOSA



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