[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221742
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE 22 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N1W 3N20W EQ.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE SW COAST OF AFRICA FROM
1N-6N BETWEEN 10W-17W.  A NARROW AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
25W-45W. SCATTERED MODERATE ITCZ CONVECTION IS OBSERVED MOVING
INTO S AMERICA FROM 2S TO 2N BETWEEN 45W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
POTENT S STREAM CUTOFF LOW OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES
CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER TODAY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EWD
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ATTENDANT 100 KT SUBTROPICAL JET
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER N MEXICO EWD OVER THE S
UNITED STATES.  AT THE SURFACE...1002 MB SURFACE LOW RESIDES N
OF THE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WITH TRAILING COLD
NOW MOVING OFF THE SE COAST OF TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT IS MOISTURE
STARVED WITH ONLY A NARROW BAND OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE.  HOWEVER...GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION ACCOMPANIES THE WARM
FRONT FURTHER E OVER THE SE UNITED STATES FUELING WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NWD.   THE WARM
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH ALMOST
SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER THE E GULF AND
FLORIDA.   EXPECT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD
FORM OVER FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAX DIURNAL HEATING.
HOWEVER...THE REAL ACTIVITY STARTS WED AS THE COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY OVER THE NW GULF ENCOUNTERS THE VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WHICH HAS FORMED OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA.
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE STRONGEST LIFT/DYNAMICS WILL BE MAINLY
FOCUSED ACROSS THE NE GULF AND FLORIDA N OF THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
TOMORROW PRODUCING A GOOD CHANCE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THOSE AREAS.  HOWEVER...AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING ALONG
THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF
AND S FLORIDA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE WED.

CARIBBEAN...
PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED E/W ACROSS
THE AREA ALONG 10N/11N THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.  A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING
INTO THE NW GULF WILL APPROACH THE EXTREME NW PORTION OF THE
CARIBBEAN THU MORNING BUT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY OVER
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.  SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY PRECEDED THE BOUNDARY ESPECIALLY OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA.  OTHERWISE...VERY DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO RESTRICT
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

ATLANTIC...
A FAIRLY FLAT ZONAL PATTERN PREVAILS OVER THE ATLC WATERS WITH
THE CORE OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES AND MID-LATITUDE
AIR JUST N OF THE AREA.  TWO WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES ARE PRODUCING THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WITH THE
MOST NOTABLE CURRENTLY OF THESE DISTURBANCES MOVING OFF THE SE
UNITED STATES COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS TRIGGERING A SMALL AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N W OF
70W.  A SECOND...EVEN WEAKER...SHORTWAVE CLIPS THE N PORTION OF
THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 50W WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE
ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH FROM 31N46W TO 25N60W.
ELSEWHERE...STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG 14N/15N
PREVAILS WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE PRODUCING DRY/STABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT.  OVER THE E ATLC...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACCOMPANY A REMNANT FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE THE CANARY
ISLANDS TO 22N40W. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS AND VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS MOVING OFF
W AFRICA ARE LARGELY SUPPRESSING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION OVER
THE AREA INCLUDING MUCH OF THE TROPICAL ATLC WHERE ITCZ ACTIVITY
IS RESTRICTED S OF 5N.

$$
RHOME



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