[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211812
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON 21 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W 2N43W EQ50W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN
25W-35W...AND BETWEEN 45W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO E TEXAS ALONG 31N84W 29N90W 31N95W.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER E TEXAS FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 93W-98W.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS TO S FLORIDA TO THE E
GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 27N78W 26N89W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 83W-89W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF OF
MEXICO N OF 20N AND BETWEEN 75W-90W MOVING E.  EXPECT A COLD
FRONT TO BE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO S OF LOUISIANA TO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE WITH ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IN 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN...
TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN HAVE A ESE WIND DIRECTION TODAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN
60W-67W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...STRONG SW FLOW IS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN WITH LIGHTER SW FLOW OVER THE E CARIBBEAN.  STRONG
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.

ATLANTIC..
WEAKENING 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N75W.
ANOTHER 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 24N48W.
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE CANARY ISLANDS
ALONG 32N16W 28N21W.  AN OUTBREAK OF SAHARA DUST IS ALSO
APPROACHING THE CANARY ISLANDS FROM THE E.  DUST IS FROM 8N-20N
E OF 23W MOVING SLOWLY W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...LARGE
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 20N36W.  BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC
FROM 10N-30N BETWEEN 10W-75W.

$$
FORMOSA


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