[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201749
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN 20 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1645 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N21W 2N30W 1N40W EQ50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITH IN 90/120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 6N10W TO NEAR
2N30W.  WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION BETWEEN 2S-3N FROM 30W-40W
AND BETWEEN 3S-3N BETWEEN 40W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO  MOVING E OUT OF TEXAS ACROSS
THE SE UNITED STATES AND IS THE CURRENT WEATHER MAKER IN THE
GULF  W OF 87W.  ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS BEGINNING TO MOVE
OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND IS LOCATED ALONG AN AXIS FROM 30N94W TO
28N97W. SQUALL LINE  THAT PRECEDES THE FRONT  HAS BEGUN TO
DISSIPATE WITH JUST SCATTERED MODERATED CONVECTION  FROM 29N-30N
BETWEEN 87W-90W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE E HALF OF
THE GULF AND FLORIDA WITH A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED ALONG THE NW
COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND COOL/DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE E GULF E OF 26N. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF
96W...THE PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN WILL BE SLOWER OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NONETHELESS...UNSETTLED/WET CONDITIONS
MAY EXIST OVER THE N GULF THROUGH TUE.

CARIBBEAN...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC
WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING E/W ALONG 15N/16N. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS BEING PUSHED AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE FROM WHICH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL AMERICA TO OVER E
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 22N72W. HOWEVER... THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT. DRY CONDITIONS ALSO PREVAIL IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY.

ATLANTIC...
STRONG MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 47N59W WITH STRONG
RIDGING OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS IS PRODUCING MAINLY SW FLOW
OVER THE W ATLC. A 1009 MB LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE E AND IS
CENTERED NEAR 33N73W WITH A WEAK  DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
EXTENDING W INTO THE AREA NEAR 31N77W AND CONTINUING WEST TO
NEAR 29N81W.  OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SW FROM A 998 MB LOW  WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 38N27W... THE COLD
FRONT ENTERS INTO THE AREA NEAR 31N33W AND CONTINUES W TO NEAR
25N50W THEN CONTINUES WEST AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO
NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
SUPPORTING WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FOCUSED WELL N OF THE AREA BUT
ISOLATED SHOWERS  MAY EXTEND E OF FRONT. FURTHER E...AN
ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE SPANS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
ATLC FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS SW TO A 1020 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR
20N34W THEN NW TO A SECONDARY HIGH LOCATED NEAR 28N59W. THERE IS
NO LARGE-SCALE PRECIPITATION OVER THE E HALF OF THE SUBTROPICAL
ATLC. FURTHER S...MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS AND
DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS MOVING OFF W AFRICA IS LARGELY
SUPPRESSING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA.

$$
JP/MN



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