[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180532
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI 18 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W 1N40W 2S50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDS S OF THE AXIS TO THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 10W-23W. SCATTERED MODERATE S OF THE AXIS PAST
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 26W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF HAS ALMOST
MOVED COMPLETELY OVER THE GULF WATERS AND IS HIGHLIGHTED BY A
STRONG VORT MAX CURRENTLY CENTERED ABOUT 100 NM SSW OF PENSACOLA
FL MOVING E ABOUT 40 KT. DEEP SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROF IS
DRAWING PAC MOISTURE FROM NRN SECTION OF CNTRL AMERICA TO THE FL
PENINSULA IN A 300/400 NM WIDE BAND...WHICH IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 100 NM OF A LINE FROM W CUBA TO
32N75W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE AREA ALONG
32N74W SW TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL AND SARASOTA FL THEN TO CANCUN
MX...AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROF IS LOCATED ABOUT 80 NM TO THE SE
ALONG 27N79W 21N85W THRU S FL TO W CUBA PROVIDING THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS/TSTMS. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE IS PRODUCING QUICK CLEARING OF THE SKIES OVER THE
W/CNTRL GULF...WITH ONLY A FEW LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE NE GULF
IN SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AND OVERCAST CONDITIONS OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. HIGH PRES IS BUILDING IN FROM THE W AND
SHOULD MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THRU SAT.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON SAT NIGHT/SUN AHEAD OF
A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL MOVE OFF THE TX COAST SAT
NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN...
THE COLD FRONT AND TROF OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE MOVING
ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS...EXTENDING FROM ABOUT THE W TIP OF CUBA TO THE
BAY OF CHETUMAL AND BELIZE. ALTHOUGH NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO/FL...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING UP TO 100 NM SE OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 19N.
ELSEWHERE...A STRONG UPPER HIGH LOCATED ABOUT 100 NM S OF
HISPANIOLA IS BLOCKING THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPSTREAM FRONT AND
UPPER TROF...AND IS PRODUCING VERY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS E OF 83W...WITH ONLY A LITTLE MOISTURE
STREAMING FROM W VENEZUELA TO CNTRL AMERICA. EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES...AND GRENADA IN THE ELY TRADES THE REST OF THE AREA
IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD SFC RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE W ATLC WITH A 1019 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 24N55W AND RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE N BAHAMAS. A
COLD FRONT IS MOVING SLOWLY OFF THE FL COAST AND EXTENDS OVER
THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA FROM 32N74W TO CAPE CANAVERAL FL
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS N OF 24N W OF 75W TO FL. AN UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ANTICYCLONE NWD ALONG 67W/68W
AND MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS ROUNDING THE AXIS N OF THE
AREA...KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE W ATLC DRY. FARTHER E...A
LARGE N ATLC CUT-OFF LOW IS SPIRALING JUST SE OF NEWFOUNDLAND
BUT A PART OF THE TROF HAS DETACHED OVER THE CNTRL ATLC
WATERS...EXTENDING FROM 32N33W TO 10N50W. THIS TROF IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ALONG 32N25W 25N30W 16N53W WITH ONLY
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
BOUNDARY N OF 26N. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY MOVING
E/SE IN UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 27N TO
50W. THE E ATLC AND AREAS OFF THE AFRICAN COAST REMAIN DRY AS
SAHARAN AIR MOVES OFF THE CONTINENT...AND A WEAK UPPER RIDGE
LIES ALONG THE COAST FROM MAURITANIA TO PORTUGAL. A SECOND RIDGE
LIES E/W TO THE N OF THE EQUATOR ALONG 3N20W 7N43W AND IS
ALLOWING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO EXPAND N AND E OUT OF BRAZIL
TOWARDS GUINEA AND SIERRA LEONE. ITCZ CONVECTION IS FOCUSED WELL
TO THE S NEAR THE EQUATOR...PRIMARILY WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
IS VARIABLE AND DIVERGENT.

$$
BERG


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net