[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160532
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED 16 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 3N18W 2N40W 1N50W. SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE IVORY
COAST FROM 4W-7W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 18W-40W...S OF 2N
TO THE EQUATOR FROM 12W-16W...AND S OF THE AXIS W OF 46W TO
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD LONGWAVE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS LOCATED OVER THE
DESERT SW AND NW MEXICO. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES
THE GULF AND W ATLC WITH THE AXIS ALONG 80W AND IS PRODUCING
UPPER SW TO W FLOW OVER ALL OF THE GULF. DIVERGENCE ALOFT
COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM WITH WINDS TO 110 KT
ALIGNED ROUGHLY ALONG THE W GULF COAST N TO OVER THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES CONTINUES TO DRAW PACIFIC MOISTURE NE OVER S MEXICO...THE
GULF WATERS...AND OVER THE SE UNITED STATES. A 1003 MB LOW IS
OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 24N98W WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NE
OFFSHORE OF TEXAS ALONG 29N93W ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 28N82W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS NW
FROM THE LOW AND IS BANKED AGAINST THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA
MADRES. HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVERS THE GULF NW OF A LINE
FROM MEXICO NEAR 21N98W TO FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W.

CARIBBEAN...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
AND IS CENTERED OVER THE ABC ISLANDS ALONG THE COAST OF
VENEZUELA WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING NW TO OVER W CUBA.
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA E OF 87W INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE
TROPICAL ATLC S OF 20N. THERE IS EVEN A LACK OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS/SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERLY TRADES. LOW
CLOUDS WITH OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS FROM
OVER CUBA ALONG 80W WITH ANTICYCLONIC COVERING THE W ATLC W OF
65W. LONGWAVE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC E OF 65W COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 32N47W SW TO 28N56W THEN MEANDERING WESTWARD ALONG 26N64W
28N77W TO ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 27N79W. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY IS N OF THE REGION THUS ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
90 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. REMAINDER OF THE FRONT IS DENOTED
BY A DISTINCT ROPE CLOUD ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE AREA
N AND W OF THE FRONT IS COVERED BY COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS. ALSO AT THE SURFACE IS A WEAK 1021 MB HIGH LOCATED E OF
THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N73W. ALMOST ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE
ATLC DUE TO LENGTH OF THE UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH. A MID/UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 40W AND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURE IS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N32W SW TO 24N46W. DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE
FRONT N OF 26N. A SECOND WEAK A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS OVER THE E ATLC ALONG 26W. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE E ATLC EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH NE OF THE CANARY ISLANDS
THROUGH 32N16W SW TO 18N32W.

$$
WALLACE


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