[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151134
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE 15 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N14W 3N43W ACROSS THE EQUATOR
NEAR 50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 12W-16W AND S OF 5N
ACROSS THE EQUATOR W OF 16W ACROSS THE ATLC TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER W MEXICO WITH DOWNSTREAM
SW FLOW ALOFT AND ADVECTING PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER THE ENTIRE
GULF. A JET STREAM WITH WINDS TO 110W KT EXTENDING FROM NE
MEXICO ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES INTO THE W ATLC. THIS IS
PRODUCING HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA E TO ACROSS FLORIDA.
WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOW OFF THE GEORGIA COAST
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF NEAR 29N83W THEN SW
TO 26N89W THEN AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO INLAND OVER MEXICO S OF
TAMPICO AND UP THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRES MOUNTAINS.
SERIES OF LOW PRES CENTERS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
BOUNDARY THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WITHIN 120/140 NM OF THE
FRONT BETWEEN 90W-96W. THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
AND SPREAD E OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

CARIBBEAN...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF VENEZUELA
NEAR THE ABC ISLANDS WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING ALL
OF THE CARIBBEAN...GULF OF MEXICO...AND W ATLC. THIS FLOW IS
KEEPING ALL MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE NW OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO THUS MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN. FEW LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADE WIND FLOW MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES.

ATLANTIC...
W ATLC IS DOMINATED BY MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW W
OF 45W WITH THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA. JET STREAM WITH WINDS TO 130 KT COVERS THE W ATLC N
OF 23N AND IS CARRYING THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF TO
OVER THE BAHAMAS. AT THE SURFACE...A 1016 MB HIGH IS LOCATED
JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N69W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS
THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLC WITH MOST OF THE UPPER ENERGY N OF THE
REGION. THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS THROUGH 32N38W TO 22N40W WITH
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING WSW INTO THE W ATLC JUST S OF
BERMUDA NEAR 32N64W ALONG 31N72W TO THE 1012 MB LOW OFF THE
COAST OF GEORGIA. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT IS N
OF THE REGION. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE
EASTERN/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N30W EXTENDING SW ALONG 25N43W TO
21N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF
THE FRONT N OF 28N WITH OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM JUST N OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 18N24W N TO BEYOND 32N225W.
DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT. A MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS E TO W FROM INLAND OVER AFRICA ALONG 12N16W
TO 10N35W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT ARE WITHIN 600 NM
N OF THE TROUGH AXIS...THEREFORE PRODUCING A STRONG TRADE
INVERSION OVER THE E ATLC. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AND SOME SAHARAN
DUST ARE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THIS INVERSION...PRIMARILY EXTENDING
FROM 5N-20N E OF 30W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1018 MB HIGH IS N OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND SW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 25N23W.

$$
WALLACE



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