[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 141724
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON 14 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N6W 3N20W 4N30W EQ41W 3S50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
22W-33W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE S OF THE IVORY COAST FROM
EQ-4N BETWEEN 2W-8W. SCATTERED MODERATE S OF 3N BETWEEN 37W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF LIES OFF THE PAC COAST OF MEXICO WITH
DOWNSTREAM SWLY FLOW ALOFT SPREADING OVER THE ENTIRE GULF
WATERS...AND A 130 KT JET EXTENDING FROM NE MEXICO TO SRN GA.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A 500 NM WIDE BAND OF MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE EXTENDING S OF THE JET AXIS...AND THIS IS PRODUCING
HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA AND EWD OVER MUCH OF FL. A WEAK
COLD FRONT IS SLIDING E ALONG THE N GULF COAST AND EXTENDS FROM
THE W FL PANHANDLE SW TO 28N93W 25N94W...THEN AS A STATIONARY
FRONT TO 23N98W AND UP THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRES. THE
FRONT IS HANGING UP ON ITS WRN END DUE TO THE LACK OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AND THERE IS ONLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDINESS UP TO 120
NM NW OF THE BOUNDARY. A PRE-FRONTAL TROF IS LOCATED 140 NM E OF
THE FRONT FROM 30N84W 28N88W AND IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 81W-85W. A SERIES OF LOW PRES
CENTERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THRU MID-WEEK WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FORMING OVER THE W GULF WATERS
TUE...EVENTUALLY SPREADING S AND E FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
FL STRAITS BY THU NIGHT/FRI.

CARIBBEAN...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA
OF COLOMBIA WITH A MORE OR LESS E/W ORIENTED RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM OFF THE COAST OF GUYANA TO THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER.
THE HIGH COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN AND IS KEEPING ALL
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO ITS NW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS LOCATED N OF 6N AND E OF 85W AND
IS PRODUCING A STRONG TEMP INVERSION NEAR 750 MB OVER THE ABC
ISLANDS...OR NEAR THE HIGH CENTER. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE TRADE WIND FLOW AND ARE MOVING OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND WINDWARD ISLANDS...SPREADING W OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS S OF 16N.

ATLANTIC...
A LARGE CYCLONIC DEEP-LAYERED VORTEX CENTERED ABOUT 500 NM SE OF
NEWFOUNDLAND IS JUST GRAZING THE AREA WITH A SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE RIDING EWD ALONG 50W...AND STRADDLED BY A PAIR OF
RIDGES OVER THE W ATLC AND E ATLC WATERS. AN ELONGATED ZONAL SFC
RIDGE HAS SET UP OVER THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS BETWEEN 24N-26N
WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IMPINGING FROM THE N ALONG 32N31W
26N47W THEN DISSIPATING TO 23N60W. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
IS TRIGGERING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90
NM OF THE FRONT N OF 28N...WHICH IS RIDING NE ALONG THE NRN
PERIPHERY OF THE SFC/LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. FARTHER DOWNSTREAM...A
PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER TROF IS MOVING INLAND OVER NRN MOROCCO AND
W ALGERIA WITH A NARROWING TROF AXIS EXTENDING SW TO 20N10W
13N20W 10N40W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OCCURRING WITHIN
300 NM N OF THE TROF/SHEAR AXIS AND IS THEREFORE PRODUCING A
STRONG TRADE INVERSION OVER THE E ATLC WATERS. A LOW-LEVEL LAYER
OF DRY AIR AND SOME SAHARAN DUST ARE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE
INVERSION...PRIMARILY EXTENDING FROM 5N-20N E OF 25W. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE TROPICS IS WEDGED BETWEEN THE E
ATLC SHEAR ZONE AND AN UPPER LOW S OF THE EQUATOR OVER E BRAZIL
AND IS ENHANCING AN AREA OF ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 25W-50W.

$$
BERG


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