[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 100529
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU 10 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N10W 5N16W 1N26W ACROSS THE
EQUATOR NEAR 42W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF
A LINE FROM 4N4W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN NEAR 2N. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF 1.5N
FROM 9W-13W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE S OF THE EQUATOR
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
ACTIVE PATTERN EXISTS OVER THE AREA AS A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET
ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE N GULF HAS MERGED WITH THE POLAR
JET FURTHER N ALONG THE E COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE
PHASING OF THE JETS HAS RESULTING IN CORE WINDS EXCEEDING 150 KT
OVER THE NE GULF/SE UNITED STATES INTO THE W ATLC WITH
ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS/LIFT WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION MAINTAINING
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER
MOST OF THE NE GULF AND THE STATE OF FL. AT THE SURFACE...
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SW
TO A 1006 MB LOW OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL CONTINUING AS A COLD
FRONT SW OVER BELIZE/MEXICO THEN BANKED ALONG THE E SLOPES OF
THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AS A STATIONARY FRONT. THE STATIONARY
FRONT OVER CUBA LIES ALONG THE S EXTENT OF THE LARGE CLOUD/
PRECIPITATION SHIELD IMPLYING OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS AS MOIST
TROPICAL AIR SURGES NORTH. UPSTREAM...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING
SE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES IS
PRODUCING A REINFORCING SHOT OF CONTINENTAL AIR NOW COVERING ALL
OF THE GULF WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF MUCH DRIER AIR REACHING
FLORIDA. THUS...WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE CONFINED TO WITHIN 60 NM AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM S ALABAMA WSW ACROSS SE LOUISIANA TO INLAND OVER
TEXAS NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI BUT UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE
MAINLY N OF THE AREA AND LIMITING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO THE LOWER LEVELS.

CARIBBEAN...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE COLOMBIAN
COAST NEAR 12N72W WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN. ASIDE FROM A THIN SWATH OF UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
NW CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND W CUBA...THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA IS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO REMAINS LARGELY
LIMITED RESULTING IN MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. OVERCAST
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WHICH NOW EXTENDS FROM A 1006 MB LOW OVER THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL SW TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MEXICO OVER
N BELIZE. THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN LATER TODAY AS IT MOVES E
EXTENDING FROM E CUBA TO HONDURAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT REMAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
THRU FRI SUPPORTING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM NICARAGUA
THROUGH GUATEMALA. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY DRY/TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SOME INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE N COAST OF S AMERICA BY THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING QUICKLY E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG
32N56W TO 27N66W THEN HANGS UP AS STATIONARY TO A 1007 MB LOW
OVER N BAHAMAS/STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUING THROUGH THE STRAITS TO A 1006 MB LOW IN THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN STEADILY SPREADING E AND COVERS THE W ATLC TO
OVER FLORIDA. CURRENTLY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS
W OF 73W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES DOWNSTREAM OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN ATLC ALONG 32N35W 20N38W 12N47W AND IS ALSO
SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 32N23W 22N33W 16N44W...THEN
DISSIPATING SW TO NEAR TOBAGO. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 20N AND
WITHIN 120 NM S OF 20N. OVER THE FAR E ATLC...BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TO INLAND OVER AFRICA ALONG 12W PREVAILS WITH UPSTREAM
MOISTURE STREAMING AROUND THE APEX OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS AND
SW EUROPE. AS A RESULT...MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS PRODUCING
DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT WITH VERY DRY AIR EXTENDING OFF THE
W COAST OF AFRICA FROM 10N-23N E OF 25W.

$$
WALLACE


WWWW
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