[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 091730
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED 09 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N0 4N7W 5N14W 1N23W 1N31W 4S46W.
NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 3W-12W.
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM EQ-6N BETWEEN 13W-20W WITH AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY PROPAGATING SW ALONG 2N18W 8N22W. SCATTERED MODERATE
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 24W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SUBTROPICAL JET REMAINS ACTIVE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
REGION AND EXTENDS FROM THE E PAC WATERS NE OVER N/CNTRL MEXICO
THEN ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO THE CAROLINA COAST. THE JET
REMAINS MERGED WITH THE POLAR JET WITH CORE WIND SPEEDS
EXCEEDING 170 KT AT THE 250 MB LEVEL E OF CHARLESTON SC. THE
COUPLED JET IS PRODUCING BROAD SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITHIN ITS
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OVER THE GULF WATERS...WHICH HAS MAINTAINED
A LARGE SWATH OF DEEP-LAYERED CLOUDINESS THAT SPREADS FROM THE W
GULF TO THE ENTIRE STATE OF FL. A STATIONARY FRONT LIES ON THE
SRN BOUNDARY OF THE CLOUD MASS FROM THE FL STRAITS SW TO A 1008
MB LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 22N92W...AND THEN BANKED
ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRES. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
EXTEND FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN FL AND 95W WITH POCKETS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CLOUDS FROM 24N-28N E OF
87W...MUCH OF WHICH IS MOVING INLAND ACROSS FL. IN ADDITION...
GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT IS BEING INITIATED OVER THE FRONT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING FROM S TO N FROM CUBA TO S FL.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS FL THRU
TOMORROW MORNING AS DRIER NWLY FLOW FILTERS INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THE ADVANCING FRONT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN/SHOWERS COMES TO
THE N GULF COAST OF FRI AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SWD FROM CONUS.

CARIBBEAN...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE COLOMBIAN
COAST NEAR 12N76W WITH BROAD SWLY FLOW EXTENDING FROM CNTRL
AMERICA TO THE GREATER ANTILLES...THEN NWLY FLOW DOWN THE LESSER
ANTILLES CHAIN. A THIN SWATH OF UPPER MOISTURE IS STRUNG ACROSS
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND FAR NW CARIBBEAN WITHIN THE SWLY FLOW
BUT OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE AREA IS VERY DRY...WITH THE
STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE LOCATED ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NRN
VENEZUELA. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE SAGGING S FROM GRENADA TO
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO ALONG THE DYING END OF AN ATLC FRONT...AND
THE REST OF THE AREA IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN BEGINNING THIS
EVENING ALONG A COLD FRONT...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERING
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN THRU THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES.

ATLANTIC...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING QUICKLY EWD OVER THE W ATLC WATERS WITHIN
DEEP-LAYERED WESTERLY FLOW BUT THEN HANGS UP AS STATIONARY FROM
THE NRN BAHAMAS TO THE FL STRAITS...EXTENDING ALONG 32N59W
26N70W 24N80W. ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTEND WITHIN 30 NM
OF THE FRONT E OF 64W BUT NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS ARE FILLING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AS THEY SPREAD EWD ACROSS FL. A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROF LIES DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CNTRL ATLC ALONG 32N35W
20N40W 10N44W AND IS ALSO SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG
32N24W 25N30W 16N44W...THEN DISSIPATING SW TO THE SRN WINDWARD
ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE FRONT N OF 27N...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT S OF 27N. A POST-FRONTAL TROF EXTENDS ALONG 32N34W 29N40W
31N46W WITH BROKEN STRATOCU FILTERING IN N OF 24N BETWEEN
32W-50W. ELSEWHERE...BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS ALONG THE
W COAST OF AFRICA AND IS DRIVING ALL SHOWERS/TSTMS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT NW TOWARDS THE AZORES AND SW EUROPE. SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY DRY CLOUDLESS AIR EXTENDING OFF THE COAST
OF AFRICA FROM 8N-26N E OF 25W.

$$
BERG


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