[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 082340
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE 08 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N1W 2N31W 3N50W. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS OVER SW AFRICA E OF
10W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 10W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM THE EQUATOR NWD TO 4N BETWEEN 27W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN VERY PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS AN ACTIVE SRN STREAM JET WILL STAY NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE S UNITED STATES AND N GULF.  AT THE SAME
TIME...MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WILL DROP SEWD FROM THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES INTERACTING WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND RESULTING
IN QUICK ROUNDS OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
CURRENTLY...THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH MOVED QUICKLY
OVER THE E UNITED STATES TODAY BRINGING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA IS NOW QUICKLY
LIFTING NEWD AWAY FROM THE AREA.  ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWER HAS RAPIDLY ENDED OVER FLORIDA FROM N TO S AS THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE SUNSHINE STATE CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE W EXTENT OF THE
FRONT...W OF 90W...HAS PULLED UP STATIONARY OVER THE SW GULF AND
ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS OF
MEXICO.  OVERRUNNING ALONG THE FRONT COUPLED WITH BROAD
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A CUT-OFF LOW OVER NW MEXICO IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER  MUCH
OF THE W GULF. EXPECT THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY ACTIVE AS A SECOND STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPS RAPIDLY
SEWD FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS.  THE
SHORTWAVE SHOULD IGNITE ANOTHER IMPRESSIVE ROUND OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT BEGINNING EARLY WED THEN
EXPANDING EWD ACROSS THE S HALF OF FLORIDA WED AFTERNOON AND WED
NIGHT.  REINFORCING SURGE OF CONTINENTAL AIR WITH THE SHORTWAVE
WILL KICK THE NOW STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE W GULF ALONG
RESULTING IN ANOTHER FROPA OVER S FLORIDA WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING.  HOWEVER...POST FRONTAL NLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED DRYING
WILL BE BRIEF AS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE AND FRONT DROPPING FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN...
THE PATTERN IS LESS COMPLEX OVER THE CARIBBEAN AS BROAD
MID/UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS EFFECTIVE BLOCKING UPSTREAM ENERGY FROM
PENETRATING THE AREA.  THE RIDGE AXIS IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED E/W
ALONG 11N WITH MULTIPLE ANTICYCLONIC CENTERS OBSERVED IN
UW-CIMMS SATELLITE WINDS...ONE NEAR PANAMA AND ANOTHER ALONG THE
N COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N70W.  MOISTURE IS LARGELY ABSENT
THROUGH ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE RESULTING IN MINIMAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY.  THIS DRY AIR SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WED WITH
SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND W CUBA WED NIGHT.  THERE
SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO TRIGGER A BRIEF
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT...MAINLY OVER
CUBA...EARLY THU.  THEREAFTER...THE FRONT QUICKLY LOSES UPPER
SUPPORT WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE DISSIPATING
BOUNDARY WHICH PULLS UP STATIONARY FROM E CUBA TO HONDURAS BY
LATE WEEK. ELSEWHERE...DRY/TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THE MAIN WEATHER OVER THE W ATLC
CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS.  GOOD
DYNAMICS/LIFT AHEAD OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS UP TO 300 NM SE OF THE FRONT MAINLY E OF
THE BAHAMAS. GALE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO OBSERVED BOTH AHEAD OF AND
BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO AN UNUSUALLY STRONG PRES GRADIENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NEWD TONIGHT WITH
DECREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE AGAIN LATE WED FROM W TO EAST
ALONG THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT OVER THE BAHAMAS AS AN UPSTREAM
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE GULF.  OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...AN
UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS TO BEYOND
32N55W PREVAILS. FINALLY OVER THE E ATLC...A LARGE DEEP-LAYERED
OCCLUDED LOW IS LOCATED N OF THE AREA WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
TROF EXTENDING SWD ALONG 32N40W TO 20N50W. ATTENDANT SURFACE
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N25W SWD TO 20N40W...THEN
DISSIPATING TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS/LIFT
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS N OF THE AREA BUT A NARROW BAND OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS UP TO 100 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. S
OF 27N...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE
OF FRONT.  THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24-36
HRS WITH DECREASING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

$$
RHOME



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