[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081109
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE 08 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N16W 2N40W SOUTH OF THE
EQUATOR NEAR 46W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 48W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS
FROM 18W-23W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150
NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 10W-14W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 125 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM
25W-30W...FROM 32W-37W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF 2N W OF 49W TO
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE S STREAM CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA COUPLED WITH AN
AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES
INTO THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO CARVE OUT A LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS NW MEXICO AND SE
UNITED STATES. STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS TO 170
KT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE S TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
NE ACROSS MEXICO OVER THE N GULF INTO THE E UNITED STATES INTO
THE W ATLC. BROAD SCALE DIFFLUENT FLOW WITH THE JET IS
SUPPORTING BANDS OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF. MEANWHILE...STRONG DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING OVER THE E U.S. SHORTWAVE IS
PRODUCING A BAND OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NE
GULF COAST BETWEEN THE CENTRAL GULF TO OVER NE FLORIDA. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OVER SE LOUISIANA
TO INLAND OVER TEXAS JUST N OF BROWNSVILLE AND WILL CONTINUE TO
SWEEP QUICKLY ACROSS THE REMAINING GULF WATERS CLEARING FLORIDA
LATER TODAY. THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE GOOD DYNAMICS/LIFT ALONG THE FRONT PRODUCING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE FRONT THROUGH
THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE THE COLD FRONT PULLS UP STATIONARY OVER
THE W GULF NEAR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATER TODAY. THIS SHOULD
PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF
25N WITH POST-FRONTAL N FLOW PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS ALONG THE WINDWARD FACING SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO PREVAIL OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WITH MEAN AXIS EXTENDING SE/NW ACROSS THE AREA.
UPSTREAM MOISTURE IS RIDING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE PRODUCING
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE AIR IN THE UPPER LEVELS. AT
THE SURFACE...REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MAINTAINING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COULD POSSIBLE GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 14N E OF 76W. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY DRY
AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS DRY AIR SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL
LATER TODAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
APPROACHES THE AREA.

ATLANTIC...
AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE E UNITED STATES IS
RESULTING IN A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC. FOR NOW...THE
BUILDING RIDGE IS MAINTAIN DRY/TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA W OF 60W ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING INTO THE
AREA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLC
WATERS THIS MORNING. COLD FRONT THEN RACES ACROSS THE W ATLC
TODAY REACHING BERMUDA BY TONIGHT AND TRAILING S TO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS. AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NE WITH
ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS/LIFT CONFINED N OF 25N BY TONIGHT. SHIFTING
E...CENTRAL ATLC COLD FRONT IS ALONG 32N31W 16N50W THEN
DISSIPATING E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 14N60W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...VIGOROUS DEEP LAYERED LOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 28N TO THE CANARY
ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT N OF THE
AREA LATER THIS MORNING WITH OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS REMAINING ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
EXTEND FROM 32N28W TO 16N46W BY THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE OVER THE
E ATLC AND TROPICS...MID/UPPER RIDGE IS MAINTAINING VERY DRY
CONDITIONS. DRY AIR ALOFT HAS PENETRATED WELL INTO THE TROPICAL
WATERS SUPPRESSING ITCZ ACTIVITY TO MAINLY S OF 4N.
ADDITIONALLY...LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IS ALSO MOVING W OFF AFRICA
KEEPING AN AREA CLOUD FREE FROM 4N-20N E OF 24W INCLUDING THE
EASTERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
WALLACE



WWWW
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