[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071740
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON 07 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N2W 1N24W 1N40W 3S53W. ISOLATED
TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE AXIS OVER NW IVORY COAST. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 3N BETWEEN 30W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW IS SPIRALING SWD OVER THE CNTRL BAJA
PENINSULA AND CONTINUES TO SUSTAIN LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE
SW U.S. AND NRN MEXICO...WHICH IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
POSITIVELY TILTED AS THE MAIN ENERGY CENTER SHIFTS EWD OVER THE
MISSOURI VALLEY. THE SRN STREAM SUBTROPICAL JET REMAINS ACTIVE
ON THE S SIDE OF THIS TROF AND STRETCHES FROM N MEXICO TO THE FL
PANHANDLE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS DEPARTING TO THE E OF THE
AREA AND A SECOND JET STREAK MOVING INLAND OVER THE PAC COAST OF
MEXICO. A BAND OF BROKEN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS EXTENDS UP TO
325 NM S OF THE JET AXIS OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH THE REAR
RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE DEPARTING JET PRODUCING EMBEDDED ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN THE CLOUD BAND FROM 23N-28N OVER THE ENTIRE
WIDTH OF THE GULF. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK TROF/LOW IS
PUSHING SLOWLY SE ACROSS SE TX AND NE MEXICO WITH BROAD
OVERRUNNING STRETCHING INLAND FROM THE GULF TO E TX. SUPERCELLS
TRANSFORMING INTO A MULTICELLULAR CONFIGURATION ARE PROPAGATING
EWD ACROSS SE TX...WITH A FEW MOVING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SE
OF HOUSTON. A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF
THE COAST LATER THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED OVER THE NE GULF...AND THE FRONT WILL MOVE TO AND
STALL OVER THE FL STRAITS BY TUE EVENING. THIS WILL FOSTER THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE S GULF AND S FL ON WED
AND THU.

CARIBBEAN...
AN E/W UPPER RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF S AMERICA IS
BEGINNING TO PROTRUDE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH S/SW
FLOW OVER CNTRL AMERICA BECOMING WESTERLY OVER THE REST OF THE
AREA. PRACTICALLY THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE IS DRY...WITH THE TRADE
WIND INVERSION AS LOW AS 850 MB IN THE DRIEST AIR OVER PUERTO
RICO/VIRGIN ISLANDS. EVEN STILL...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS
SAGGING SWD OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM ABOUT GUADELOUPE WWD TO
16N71W...WHICH IS PRODUCING ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS UP TO
200 NM S OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. ELSEWHERE...A GULF OF
MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE FL STRAITS AND WILL BRING
A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO W
CUBA ON WED AND THU...AND THEN THE FRONT WILL SURGE SWD OVER THE
W CARIBBEAN LATE THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.

ATLANTIC...
SFC HIGH PRES IS MIGRATING EWD OVER THE W ATLC WATERS...CENTERED
NEAR 28N73W WITH A CNTRL PRES NEAR 1022 MB. THE HIGH IS MOVING
IN BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM A STORM CENTER
N OF THE AREA TO 32N44W 25N50W 22N60W 22N71W. THE FRONT IS
SUPPORTED BY A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE LOCATED N OF THE
AREA ALONG 48W AND A STRONG 130+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET ALONG 28N
BETWEEN 40W-60W. THE FRONT IS CATCHING UP TO A SECOND FRONT
WHICH EXTENDS FROM A 1000 MB LOW NEAR 31N41W SW TO 21N50W TO
GUADELOUPE. A WARM FRONT IS PUSHING N OF THE AREA TO THE E OF
THE LOW WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR THE BOUNDARY N OF
26N BETWEEN 30W-40W. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS EXTEND
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT FROM 18N-26N. THE TWO FRONTS ARE
EXPECTED TO MERGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SFC LOW BECOMING A
TRIPLE POINT OF THE N ATLC STORM CENTER. OVER THE TROPICS...AN
E/W UPPER RIDGE HAS SHIFTED N OVER THE PAST 24 HRS AND HAS
REINTRODUCED EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EQUATOR UP TO 3N/4N. UPPER
DIVERGENCE ALONG THE RIDGE IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN
30W-40W AS SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS PROPAGATE WWD TO THE BRAZIL
COAST. ELSEWHERE...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF STRETCHES
FROM NW AFRICA TO SENEGAL WITH DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR PLUNGING
SWD TO 3N. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR IS ALSO MOVING WWD OFF AFRICA FROM
6N-22N E OF 24W.

$$
BERG


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