[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 040004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU 03 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
XXXX UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 10N11W 6N10W 3N40W 2N60W. SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION S OF 2N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 31W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
POTENT S STREAM IMPULSE ENTERING THE W GULF IS THE MAIN WEATHER
MAKER TONIGHT AS IT PRODUCES WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA.  STRONG 160
KT UPPER JET OVER N FLORIDA AND THE W ATLC IS ALSO COMING INTO
PLAY WITH ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS/LIFT ABOUT THE ENTRANCE REGION
BECOMING INCREASINGLY ALIGNED WITH A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW
APPROXIMATELY 300 NM W OF THE FLORIDA KEYS.  THE LOW IS
PRODUCING THE FINAL INGREDIENT WITH MOIST SLY FLOW TO THE EAST
AND WARM FRONTOGENESIS THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS.  ALL THIS
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A STORMY EVENING OVER THE SE GULF AND
EXTREME S FLORIDA WITH LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY ALREADY
SHOWING DEEP CONVECTION FORMING E OF THE SURFACE LOW.  THE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK EWD THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS OVERNIGHT THEN ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND EAST OF
AREA EARLY FRIDAY WITH RAPID CLEARING IN ITS WAKE.
ELSEWHERE...A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILS WSW FROM THE E GULF LOW TO
THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ THEN INLAND ALONG THE E SLOPES
OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS.  THIS COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP QUICKLY ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH
POST-FRONTAL NLY FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA BY MIDDAY TOMORROW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SEEN
ACROSS THE AREA.  MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT WITH LITTLE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF
CLOUDS OR SHOWERS.  IN FACT...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
NOTICEABLE ABSENCE OF THE TYPICAL TRADE WIND SHOWERS WITH EXCEPT
TO THE EXTREME E CARIBBEAN.  EVEN STILL...THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS
TO BE HAVING A HARD TIME HANGING TOGETHER AS IT CROSSES THE
ISLANDS INDICATING THE DOMINANCE OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR.  THE ONLY
OTHER WEATHER OF NOTE LIES ALONG S EXTENT OF AN OLD STATIONARY
FRONT OVER HISPANIOLA WHICH IS PRODUCING BROKEN CLOUDINESS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN LATER TONIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY AS A LOW OVER THE SE GULF TRAILS A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO
THE AREA.  DYNAMICS/LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SKIRT THE AREA
WITH THE STRONGEST AND MOST NUMEROUS ACTIVITY OVER CUBA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FRONT WHICH
WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO N HONDURAS BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE ATLC WATERS N OF 25N W OF
40W WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING FROM W
TO E.  THE MOST NOTABLE OF THESE SHORTWAVES IS CURRENTLY MOVING
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW APPROACHING
THE FLORIDA KEYS.  WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WELL AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEMS
ACROSS FLORIDA AND IT MOVING INTO THE W ATLC WATERS N OF 25N W
OF 70W. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS FLORIDA
OVERNIGHT PRODUCING A LARGE SWATCH OF CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 65W-80W TOMORROW.  ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP RAPIDLY ACROSS FLORIDA TOMORROW BRINGING DRY
AIR AND A QUICK END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM W TO E.  THE
SECOND...MUCH WEAKER...SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA ALONG 33N40W TO
HISPANIOLA WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY.  WHILE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS ARE MAINLY CONFINED N OF THE AREA...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING IS PRODUCING A 150 NM WIDE BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG THE FRONT.  THIS FRONT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE STRONGER UPSTREAM SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE W ATLC.  OVER THE FAR E ATLC...DEEP LAYERED LOW
PRESSURE NE OF THE CANARY ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY FILL AS IT
MOVES EWD INTO NW AFRICA...SPAIN...AND PORTUGAL. MOST OF THE
ASSOCIATED WEATHER IS NOW N OF THE AREA AND THE TRAILING COLD IS
RAPIDLY WEAKENING OVER AFRICA THEN EMERGING INTO THE ATLC NEAR
20N16W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS.  ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE.

$$
RHOME


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