[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021136
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED 02 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 3N21W 2N35W 2N28W ACROSS THE
EQUATOR AND INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 49W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF 3N FROM
18W-26W...WITHIN 30 NM OF 3N FROM 31W-34W...AND S OF 3N W OF 47W
TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DRIER AND COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO SPILL S INTO THE GULF COURTESY
OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE COAST OF THE NE UNITED
STATES. THE MAIN FRONT LIES SE OF THE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL/
WESTERN ATLC INTO THE W CARIBBEAN WITH A SECOND SURGE CURRENTLY
OVER THE W ATLC AND GULF FROM ACROSS FLORIDA JUST S OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE TO THE SE COAST OF TEXAS WHERE IT PULLS UP
STATIONARY. A 1023 MB HIGH SE OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS
BUILDING S BEHIND THE FRONT MAINTAINING MODERATE POST-FRONTAL
NORTHERLIES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE HIGH CENTER IS
MIGRATORY IN NATURE AND WILL REACH N FLORIDA BY LATE WED/EARLY
THRU. THIS WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE W GULF
LATER TODAY PRIOR TO THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WHICH WILL TAKE
SHAPE ON THRU WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTERNOON AND WED NIGHT. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THE PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING S FROM THE NE UNITED STATES
INTO THE E GULF. RESULTING UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS STRONG WITH A 130
KT JET CUTTING ACROSS THE AREA ALONG 27N/28N. WITH THE CORE OF
THE STRONGEST WINDS NOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...EXPECT
THE UPPER TROUGH TO LIFT NE WITH MAINLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW LEFT
IN ITS WAKE THROUGH TODAY.

CARIBBEAN...
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CENTRAL/WESTERN ATLC COLD FRONT EXTENDS
ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE E TIP OF HONDURAS. BROKEN/OVERCAST
LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTEND WITHIN 200 NM NW OF THE
FRONT WITH POST-FRONTAL N FLOW PRODUCING MORE WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS/DRIZZLE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND WINDWARD SLOPES OF
CENTRAL AMERICA. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA E OF FRONT...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PREVAILS EXTENDING FROM SE SOUTH
AMERICA N JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC.
THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING MAINLY DRY W FLOW LIMITING SIGNIFICANT
SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH MUCH OF THE AREA IS EXPERIENCING DRY
CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC...
STRONG COASTAL NOR'EASTER WELL N OF THE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES EXTENDS A COLD FRONT S ENTERING THE AREA E OF BERMUDA
NEAR 32N58W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN. WHILE THE STRONGEST UPPER
LIFT/DYNAMICS WITH THE PATTERN ARE WELL N OF THE AREA...A 200 NM
WIDE BAND OF BROKEN/OVERCAST CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. A SECONDARY/REINFORCING SURGE IS OVER THE W ATLC NEAR
32N73W TO OVER FLORIDA JUST S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE BUT THIS
FEATURE IS MAINLY DRY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. UPPER TROUGH
IS LIFTING NE BUT THE BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG THE PRIMARY COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE AS THE FRONT PUSHES SE. OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CENTRAL ATLC...BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD N BETWEEN 40W-65W WITH MOST OF THE UPSTREAM MOISTURE
STREAMING N OF THE AREA. RESULTING PATTERN IS MAINLY DRY AS
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE CREATES STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. THE
ONLY CLOUDINESS/WEATHER OF NOTE LIES ALONG THE TAIL END OF A
COLD FRONT ORIGINATING OVER THE E ATLC FROM A DEEP LAYERED
SYSTEM SE OF THE AZORES. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA
FROM A TRIPLE POINT NEAR 32N19W TRAILING SW ALONG 26N25W TO
22N32W THEN DISSIPATING TO 21N40W. BAND OF OVERCAST CLOUDINESS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS LIES WITHIN 90/120 NM AHEAD OF FRONT N OF
22N. A 993 MB OCCLUDED LOW CENTER JUST N OF THE AREA WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SE AND WEAKEN REACHING 30N21W BY TONIGHT. WEAKENING COLD
FRONT WILL TRIAL THROUGH THE CANARY ISLANDS TO N OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE
ALONG THE PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY N OF 25N INCLUDING THE CANARY
ISLANDS.

$$
WALLACE



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