[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011726
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE 01 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N0 TO A 1007 MB LOW ALONG THE
MALI/IVORY COAST BORDER...THEN SW TO 5N10W 1N20W 2N39W 2S55W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING 150 NM N OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 21W-27W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 30W-38W. SCATTERED MODERATE S OF 4N BETWEEN 48W-53W
MOVING INLAND OVER FAR NRN BRAZIL.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DRIER AND COOLER AIR HAS SWEPT SEWD OVER THE GULF WATERS AND FL
BEHIND THE RECENT COASTAL NOR'EASTER AS WEAK HIGH PRES HAS BUILT
IN FROM THE NW GULF TO CNTRL FL. THE MAIN HIGH CENTER...1018
MB...IS CENTERED ABOUT 150 NM SSE OF HOUSTON TX WHILE A SECOND
1017 MB HIGH HAS FORMED OVER CNTRL FL IMMEDIATELY BEHIND A SFC
TROF LYING ACROSS THE FL STRAITS. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS JUST
ABOUT TO MOVE SWD OFF THE N GULF COAST AND WILL CLEAR THRU THE
GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...PRIMARILY DROPPING TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH THE MAIN VORT
CENTER LOCATED OVER OHIO AND THE AXIS EXTENDING SWD TO THE E
GULF. THE BASE OF THE TROF IS QUITE BROAD WITH GENERALLY ZONAL
WESTERLY FLOW SPREADING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM JET WITH MAX WINDS OF 130 KT
FROM S TX TO CNTRL FL...AND THIS WILL BE A PLAYER IN LOW PRES
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN 2-3 DAYS OVER THE CNTRL GULF. SHOWERS/
TSTMS WILL FORM OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF TX BEGINNING EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING...SPREADING E/SE TO THE FL PENINSULA BY
THU/FRI.

WEST ATLANTIC...
THE STRONG COASTAL NOR'EASTER HAS MADE ITS WAY ALL THE WAY UP TO
MAINE/NOVA SCOTIA AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE
AREA FROM ABOUT BERMUDA SW TO SRN/CNTRL BAHAMAS AND SE CUBA. A
POST-FRONTAL TROF...WHICH IS THE FEATURE THAT IS BRINGING THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE TO FL AND THE NRN
BAHAMAS...EXTENDS ALONG 32N73W 24N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED TSTMS STRETCH UP TO 225 NM NW OF THE INITIAL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION LOCATED N OF 26N.
THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS INCHING
ITS WAY OFF THE COAST TO ABOUT 70W...WITH DIVERGENCE E OF THAT
HELPING TO PRODUCE THE SHOWERS/TSTMS. THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE SLIDING SE OVER THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS AND
WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE SRN BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA...ULTIMATELY
DISSIPATING JUST N OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

CARIBBEAN...
THE SLOW-MOVING SRN END OF THE W ATLC COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
E/CNTRL CUBA SWWD PAST THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO THE NE COAST OF
HONDURAS...THEN IS BANKED ALONG THE MTN RIDGES OF HONDURAS AND
GUATEMALA. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTEND UP TO 175 NM NW OF
THE FRONT AND NLY FLOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY IS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND
INLAND AREAS ON THE N SLOPES OF THE CNTRL AMERICAN MTNS. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR CARACAS VENEZUELA WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING THRU THE HIGH FROM THE GUYANA/SURINAME
COAST WWD TO COSTA RICA. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING WESTERLY
FLOW...WHICH INCREASES WITH LATITUDE...AND IS ADVECTING MOSTLY
DRY AIR EWD TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. A FEW PASSING TRADE WIND
SHOWERS ARE CROSSING OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THEN HEAD UP
TOWARDS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BUT OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE AREA IS
EXPERIENCING VERY NICE CONDITIONS.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS SLID EWD OVER THE CNTRL ATLC
WATERS ALONG 55W N OF 20N AND IS PRODUCING STRENGTHENING SFC
HIGH PRES JUST TO ITS E BETWEEN 40W-50W. THE RIDGE TRANSITIONS
INTO A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE E ATLC WATERS WITH SEVERAL
DISTINCT CLOSED LOWS N OF THE AREA...BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM A 993 MB LOW NEAR THE
AZORES S TO 32N26W 27N30W 23N40W THEN DISSIPATING TO 23N55W. A
30-NM WIDE BAND OF SHOWERS EXTENDS ALONG THE FRONT PRIMARILY E
OF 40W WITH A COLD AIR STRATOCU FIELD ADVECTING SWD BEHIND THE
FRONT TO 27N. A SFC RIDGE IS TUCKED S OF THE FRONT ALONG 17N AND
PROTRUDES EWD ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO
SENEGAL/MAURITANIA. THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE TROPICS IS GENERALLY
WESTERLY BUT DOES POSSESS A HINT OF TROUGHING WITH A MID-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE AXIS HAVING SET UP ALONG 9N50W 19N10W. THIS IS
PRODUCING A BAND OF MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN 9N-16N
AND IS KEEPING THE DEEPEST TROPICAL MOISTURE WELL TO THE S. AS A
RESULT...CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ IS SPORADIC AND LINEAR IN
NATURE...FOCUSED BETWEEN 20W-35W. THE STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS ALSO
SUPPORTING A DUST PLUME OUT OF AFRICA WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE
ITCZ TO 13N WWD TO ABOUT 35W.

$$
BERG


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net