[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 290900
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2005

DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED DURING THE NIGHT NEAR THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER... ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS ARE STEADILY WARMING.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z WERE 45 TO 55 KT... SO THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT.  FRANKLIN CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/19.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD... WITH CONTINUED
ACCELERATION ON ROUGHLY THE PRESENT HEADING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.  THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE
BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
ANY FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS JUST ABOUT OVER... AS FRANKLIN IS
PASSING NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM... SO GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST.  WHILE FRANKLIN CURRENTLY RETAINS THE CHARACTERISTICS OF
A TROPICAL CYCLONE... EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
WITHIN 24 HOURS... WITH THE CIRCULATION BEING ABSORBED INTO A
FRONTAL ZONE WITHIN ABOUT 48 HOURS.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK BRINGS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS NEAR
OR OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF NEWFOUNDLAND IN 24 TO 36
HOURS.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      29/0900Z 40.3N  63.8W    50 KT
 12HR VT     29/1800Z 42.0N  60.8W    45 KT
 24HR VT     30/0600Z 44.2N  56.2W    40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     30/1800Z 46.7N  50.7W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     31/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM


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