[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 280900
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2005

A DEEP BURST OF CONVECTION OCCURRED NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER
LOCATION BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z
FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAINED 45 KT... BUT SINCE THEN THE CONVECTION
HAS WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY... SO FRANKLIN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
STRENGTHENING AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT.  A SHORT
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY... ABOUT 24 HOURS... EXISTS FOR FRANKLIN TO
STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY.  WEAKENING WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER UNTIL
FRANKLIN BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL AND MERGES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN
ABOUT 3-4 DAYS.

THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS MOSTLY OBSCURED BY THE CONVECTION AND
CIRRUS OUTFLOW... BUT BASED ON EARLIER MICROWAVE OVERPASSES FROM
SSMI AND AMSU... THE CENTER OF FRANKLIN APPEARS TO NOW BE MOVING A
BIT FASTER AND SLIGHTLY EAST OF DUE NORTH.  THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 010/8.  THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY EMERGING OFF THE
EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD INDUCE A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST TODAY AND A STEADY INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE
NEXT THREE DAYS.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE ON THE HEADING BUT...
AS USUAL IN CASES OF RECURVATURE AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...
PROVIDE WIDELY VARYING SOLUTIONS ON THE SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...
ALTHOUGH JUST A LITTLE SLOWER TO BLEND WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      28/0900Z 35.5N  69.2W    45 KT
 12HR VT     28/1800Z 36.5N  68.2W    50 KT
 24HR VT     29/0600Z 38.0N  66.2W    55 KT
 36HR VT     29/1800Z 40.1N  63.2W    50 KT
 48HR VT     30/0600Z 42.4N  59.3W    40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     31/0600Z 46.5N  49.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     01/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM


$$
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net