[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 251455
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2005

CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS 35 KT...IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
ESTIMATES FROM SATELLITE ANALYSES.  AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE STORM AND WILL PROVIDE MORE
DEFINITIVE INTENSITY INFORMATION.  LATE BREAKING NEWS SINCE THE
ADVISORY WAS TRANSMITTED...THE AIRCRAFT JUST REPORTED A CENTRAL
PRESSURE NEAR 1000 MB...SO THE CYCLONE COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER
THAN WE WERE ESTIMATING.

NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ON FRANKLIN PERSISTS...AS VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE STORM NEAR THE
NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.  ALTHOUGH
THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO INHIBIT STRENGTHENING...THE
CYCLONE HAS A SUBSTANTIAL CIRCULATION THAT WILL BE SLOW TO WEAKEN.
INDEED...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW COULD
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS FRANKLIN AS A TROPICAL STORM A LITTLE
LONGER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN
WHETHER FRANKLIN WILL ACTUALLY MAKE A COMEBACK.  NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD...ASSUMING THAT THE SYSTEM MOVES ANYWHERE NEAR OUR
FORECAST TRACK...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE PASSING OVER SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER WATERS AND DISSIPATING.

FRANKLIN CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FITS AND STARTS...AND THE CURRENT
MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 070/4.  STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN
WEAK WITH THE MAIN BELT OF MID-TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLIES WELL TO THE
NORTH OF THE STORM.  IN SEVERAL DAYS A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD IN THE VICINITY OF 60W...WHICH WOULD EVENTUALLY
DRIVE FRANKLIN TOWARD HIGHER LATITUDES.  IN THE MEANTIME...THE
SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE A SLOW ERRATIC MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A SLOW EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH A
GRADUAL BEND TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SUITE OF DYNAMICAL TRACK
GUIDANCE MODELS.  ALL OF THIS GUIDANCE KEEPS THE CENTER WELL TO THE
NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA...MINIMIZING THE THREAT OF THE CENTER PASSING
OVER THAT ISLAND.  HOWEVER INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FRANKLIN'S PROGRESS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      25/1500Z 31.1N  69.6W    35 KT
 12HR VT     26/0000Z 31.3N  69.1W    35 KT
 24HR VT     26/1200Z 31.7N  68.5W    35 KT
 36HR VT     27/0000Z 32.2N  68.0W    35 KT
 48HR VT     27/1200Z 32.9N  67.3W    30 KT
 72HR VT     28/1200Z 35.0N  65.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     29/1200Z 39.0N  62.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$WWWW
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