[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 242032
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005

NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE STORM...AND THE
LOW-CLOUD CENTER IS EXPOSED...OR NEAR THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF A RAGGED
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.  ADDITIONALLY...THE LOW-CLOUD LINES APPEAR
TO HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS WELL DEFINED.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS
SET AT 45 KT FOLLOWING LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB MIAMI.
DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STRONG SHEAR WILL
PERSIST...SO CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SHIPS OUTPUT.  THE CYCLONE IS PREDICTED
TO BE DISSIPATING OVER COLDER WATERS BY 120 HOURS...AND IF THE
SHEAR CAUSES EVEN MORE VERTICAL DECOUPLING OF THE SYSTEM...IT COULD
DISSIPATE SOONER THAN THAT.  HOWEVER...THESE SHEARED TROPICAL
CYCLONES HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO BE TENACIOUS.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/8.  GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING AWAY FROM FRANKLIN WITH A DAY OR SO.  THIS
WILL WEAKEN THE STEERING CURRENTS.  HOWEVER MOST OF THE TRACK
MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OR
NORTHEASTWARD TO KEEP FRANKLIN FROM BEING BLOCKED BY A RIDGE THAT
IS PREDICTED TO BUILD NEAR BERMUDA IN SEVERAL DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF AND JUST SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN
THE PREVIOUS ONE.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      24/2100Z 31.4N  70.9W    45 KT
 12HR VT     25/0600Z 31.9N  69.4W    45 KT
 24HR VT     25/1800Z 32.5N  67.7W    40 KT
 36HR VT     26/0600Z 33.3N  66.4W    40 KT
 48HR VT     26/1800Z 33.9N  65.4W    35 KT
 72HR VT     27/1800Z 35.5N  63.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     28/1800Z 38.0N  60.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     29/1800Z 41.0N  55.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING

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