[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 240838
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005

A SLEW OF DROPSONDES FROM A NOAA P-3 AIRCRAFT CONDUCTING A RESEARCH
MISSION IN GERT INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS
REFORMED ABOUT 60 NMI NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  THIS NEW CENTER
IS RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COLDEST CONVECTION...AND WHILE THE
DROPSONDE DATA WITHIN THIS CONVECTION HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY
STRENGTHENING YET...IN FACT THE WINDS AROUND THE NEW CENTER ARE
QUITE LIGHT...THIS IMPROVEMENT IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE
SUGGESTS THAT SOME INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY IN THE 12-18 HOURS
PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT BASED ON
THE EARLIER STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE OBSERVATIONS.

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK EXCEPT TO ADJUST
IT NORTHWARD TO ACCOMODATE THE NEW INITIAL POSITION.  THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/9...AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THIS MOTION PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

ATTEMPTS TO COORDINATE WITH THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO AN EXTENSION OF
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD WERE NOT SUCCESSFUL...BUT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM PALMA SOLA TO LA PESCA.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS RAINFALL...AND RAINS FROM
GERT WILL REACH SOME OF THE AREAS EARLIER AFFECTED BY EMILY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      24/0900Z 21.0N  95.4W    35 KT
 12HR VT     24/1800Z 21.4N  96.8W    40 KT
 24HR VT     25/0600Z 22.0N  98.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     25/1800Z 22.8N  99.9W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     26/0600Z...DISSIPATED


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