[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 220527
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN IS CENTERED NEAR 26.1N 76.3W...OR ABOUT
87 NM NE OF NASSAU IN THE NW BAHAMAS...AT 22/0300 UTC MOVING NW
AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21
KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. FRANKLIN IS RELATIVELY
SMALL WITH THE CONVECTION ON THE E SIDE. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 74W-76W.
WINDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT ON THE W SIDE OVER THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF
LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 26N28W 16N32W THROUGH A BROAD
WEAKENING 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 11N32W TO 7N32W MOVING W
15-20 KT. THE LOW CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING SW AND BECOMING MORE
DIFFUSE AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA OF THE ITCZ. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST THAT IS MOVING W ACROSS THE
ATLC AND THE ASSOCIATED DRY AIR HAS SQUELCHED ANY CONVECTION
NEAR THE WAVE EXCEPT S OF THE ITCZ AXIS.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 21N51W 14N55W 5N56W MOVING W
15-20 KT. THE CLASSIC INVERTED-V SIGNATURE HAS BEEN SOLIDLY
MAINTAINED WITH THIS WAVE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND IS ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STRONG DUST SURGE TO THE E. ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN 120
NM OF LINE 11N60W-19N55W...AND WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LESSER ANTILLES AS THE WAVE PASSES LATER
TODAY INTO SAT.

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE S CARIBBEAN ALONG 70W S OF 14N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING
TOWARD THE ABC ISLANDS AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER NW VENEZUELA.

STRONG W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM W CUBA NEAR 22N81W
INLAND OVER HONDURAS/NICARAGUA NEAR 15N84W INTO THE E PACIFIC
REGION MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH A MID LEVEL LOW WITH
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS GENERATING
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN
80W-86W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF NE NICARAGUA AND SE HONDURAS...AND
N OF 19N TO THE COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 78W-82W. THIS WAVE WILL
MOVE INTO THE GULF BY LATE SAT.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 16N15W 18N24W THROUGH THE
LOW/TROPICAL WAVE TO 7N45W 12N57W 9N63W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 12N27W-8N35W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120
NM OF THE AXIS FROM 40W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
REMNANTS OF EMILY HAVE MOVED ENTIRELY INTO NW MEXICO. A SHARP
MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NE FLORIDA SW TO AN UPPER LOW N OF
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 23N94W TO OVER S MEXICO. THIS IS
DRAWING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE SE
UNTIED STATES TO ALONG THE N GULF COAST. AN UPPER HIGH IN THE W
CARIBBEAN IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE N OVER THE SE GULF WITH
ACCOMPANYING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N E OF 93W
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...OVER CUBA AND S FLORIDA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS MOSTLY CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE. THIS
SITUATION WILL CHANGE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE TROPICAL WAVE IN
THE W CARIBBEAN MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND THE S GULF ON FRI
INTO SAT.

CARIBBEAN...
SEE TROPICAL WAVES FOR THE LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE...E/NE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN IS ADVECTING STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA TO E OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES AND IS PRODUCING PLEASANT WEATHER E OF 77W
EXCEPT THE SHOWERS OVER THE ABC ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE. CIRRUS OUTFLOW FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN UPPER HIGH
IS BEING SPREAD S OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S TO THE COAST OF
PANAMA. MOISTURE IS FINALLY DISSIPATING OVER HISPANIOLA AS
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN MOVES TO THE NORTH.

ATLANTIC...
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN IS THE W ATLC NEAR THE N BAHAMAS AND IS
OVERLAID BY A RATHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH NEAR FRANKLIN WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING NNE TO A SECOND UPPER HIGH NEAR 32N70W WHICH IS
KEEPING MOST OF THE CLOUDINESS CONFINED TO W OF 70W. UPPER LEVEL
MID-OCEANIC TROUGH SNAKES ACROSS THE AREA FROM A DEEP LAYERED
LOW N OF THE REGION THROUGH 32N40W TO A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR
23N55W TO 21N66W AND IS PRODUCING ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
AREA TO KEEP THE REGION BETWEEN 40W-70W MAINLY CLEAR. A FEW
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SKIRTING THE AREA N
OF 29N BETWEEN 53W-69W AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES QUICKLY E ACROSS THE
NW ATLC. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES
BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE DEEP CONVECTION CANNOT FORM.
WIDESPREAD DUST COVERS A GOOD PORTION OF THE ATLC...ESSENTIALLY
EVERYWHERE N OF THE ITCZ TO A LINE FROM JUST N OF MADEIRA ISLAND
SW TO 20N55W AND THE TROPICAL WAVE. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 18N32W AND IS
CAPPING THE ENVIRONMENT TO KEEP THE DUST TRAPPED IN THE LOW/MID
LEVELS. AT THE SURFACE...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE ATLC EXTENDING FROM A 1029 MB HIGH IN THE NE ATLC THROUGH
32N37W SW TO A 1020 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC NEAR 27N68W.

$$
WALLACE








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