[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT71 KNHC 212108
SPFAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE  75.4 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

27.5N  77.5W      53  X  X  X 53   CHARLESTON SC      X  X  1  8  9
28.5N  77.6W      37  1  X  X 38   MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  X  1  6  7
29.0N  77.0W      30  1  1  X 32   WILMINGTON NC      X  X  X  5  5
MYSM 241N 745W    99  X  X  X 99   MOREHEAD CITY NC   X  X  X  4  4
MYAK 241N 776W     X  X  X  2  2   CAPE HATTERAS NC   X  X  X  2  2
MYNN 251N 775W    25  X  1  X 26   MARCO ISLAND FL    X  1  X  3  4
MYGF 266N 787W    30  X  X  X 30   FT MYERS FL        X  2  X  3  5
MIAMI FL           3  2  X  2  7   VENICE FL          X  1  1  3  5
W PALM BEACH FL    9  3  X  2 14   TAMPA FL           X  2  2  3  7
FT PIERCE FL       8  5  1  2 16   CEDAR KEY FL       X  1  2  4  7
COCOA BEACH FL     3  8  2  3 16   ST MARKS FL        X  X  1  3  4
DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  7  4  4 15   APALACHICOLA FL    X  X  X  2  2
JACKSONVILLE FL    X  2  4  5 11   PANAMA CITY FL     X  X  X  2  2
SAVANNAH GA        X  X  2  7  9   GULF 29N 85W       X  X  X  2  2

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2PM FRI TO  2AM SAT
C FROM  2AM SAT TO  2PM SAT
D FROM  2PM SAT TO  2PM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER STEWART


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