[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 210832
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  43
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005

THE CENTER OF EMILY HAS REACHED THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS...AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT DECAY OF THE CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE.  AT THIS MOMENT...THE STRONGEST REMAINING DEEP
CONVECTION IS IN BANDS WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER...MOST NOTABLY IN
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  BASED ON THE DECAY...DECREASING WINDS ON
THE BROWNSVILLE WSR-88D...AND OBSERVATIONS FROM MONTERREY MEXICO...
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 30 KT.  SOME HIGHER WINDS MAY
OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO TERRAIN EFFECTS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/9.  EMILY SHOULD CONTINUE THIS GENERAL
MOTION UNTIL THE SURFACE CIRCULATION DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS
OF NORTHERN MEXICO IN 12-24 HR.  THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE
REMNANT MID/UPPER LEVEL CENTER MOVES WESTWARD.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      21/0900Z 25.0N 101.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     21/1800Z 25.0N 102.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     22/0600Z...DISSIPATED


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