[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT35 KNHC 201445
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER  40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005

...EMILY WELL INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...
...WEAKENS TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM
SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER SOUTHWARD TO LA CRUZ MEXICO.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTH TEXAS
COAST HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING...AND THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER...AND ALSO FROM SOUTH OF LA
CRUZ SOUTHWARD TO CABO ROJO MEXICO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 98.1 WEST OR ABOUT 15 MILES
... 25 KM... NORTHEAST OF SAN FERNANDO MEXICO AND ABOUT 75 MILES
... 115 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
TAKING EMILY FARTHER INLAND ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
EMILY MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST OF THE CENTER.
RECENTLY...MATAMOROS MEXICO REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 46 MPH WITH
A GUST TO 65 MPH...BROWNSVILLE TEXAS REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 63
MPH...AND LA PESCA MEXICO REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 49 MPH.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  955 MB...28.20 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...WITH HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF MEXICO AND ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST TODAY.
STORM SURGE VALUES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BY THIS EVENING.

THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WHERE 5 TO
10 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...25.0 N... 98.1 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 10 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...105 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 955 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM
CDT.

FORECASTER STEWART


$$
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net