[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 200300
TCDAT5
HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2005

THE LAST TWO RECON FIXES JUST PRIOR TO 00Z INDICATED THAT THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS STILL FALLING... ALTHOUGH MORE SLOWLY THAN IT
HAD BEEN DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WHILE THE AIRCRAFT CREW REPORTED
THAT THE MEASUREMENT 942 MB AT 2114Z WAS SUSPECT... THERE IS
CONFIDENCE IN THE 948 MB MEASURED AT 2318Z... AND A MORE RECENT FIX
NEAR 02Z OF 944 MB INDICATED THE DECREASING TREND CONTINUES.  THE
FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 122 KT AT 2126Z REMAINS THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS... AND 00Z DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGED FROM 100 TO 115 KT... SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT
110 KT.  THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF EMILY IS IMPRESSIVE... WITH A 17
NM WIDE EYE AND A WELL-DEFINED INNER EYEWALL SURROUNDED BY A
CONCENTRIC BAND AT A RADIUS OF 35 NMI.  GIVEN THE PRESSURE FALLS
AND WELL-ORGANIZED INTERNAL STRUCTURES... SOME ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.

EMILY TOOK A JOG TO THE SOUTH AND EVEN BRIEFLY STALLED BETWEEN 23Z
AND 01Z... BUT A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SEEMS TO HAVE
RESUMED... ESTIMATED AT 285/6.  00Z UPPER DATA INDICATES NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES.  EMILY SHOULD STEADILY MOVE IN A GENERAL WESTWARD
DIRECTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AS ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS FORECAST.  THIS SHOULD BRING EMILY TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST
OF MEXICO WITHIN ABOUT 12 HOURS AND WELL INLAND OVER MOUNTAINOUS
INTERIOR MEXICO BY ABOUT 24 HOURS.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS ALONG THE
SAME PATH AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... JUST A LITTLE SLOWER DUE TO
THE RECENT STALL.

THE 12 FT SEAS RADII WERE EXPANDED IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANTS BASED
ON BUOY DATA... AND THE WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED SLIGHTLY MORE
BASED ON RECENT AIRCRAFT FLIGHT LEVEL DATA.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      20/0300Z 24.5N  96.4W   110 KT
 12HR VT     20/1200Z 24.7N  97.8W   120 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     21/0000Z 24.7N 100.2W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     21/1200Z...DISSIPATED


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