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WTNT35 KNHC 192239
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER  37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
6 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005

...EMILY REGAINS MAJOR CATEGORY THREE STATUS WITH 125 MPH WINDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT
MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM
SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT
NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS.  A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 6 PM CDT...2300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 96.0 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES...
168 KM... EAST OF BAHIA ALGODONES MEXICO AND ABOUT 135 MILES... 215
KM...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH ...19 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF
EMILY NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  EMILY IS NOW A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST... AND EMILY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.  OUTER RAINBANDS BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
COASTS OF FAR SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO TONIGHT.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...WITH HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH
OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN
TEXAS AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WITH ISOLATED 10 TO 12 INCH
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.  HEAVIER RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO WHERE 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE LIKELY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT...AND
OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY.

REPEATING THE 6 PM CDT POSITION...24.5 N... 96.0 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...125 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 945 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM
CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB


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