[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191839 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL.
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2005

...CORRECTED FOR TIME...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE EMILY IS CENTERED NEAR 24.0N 94.8W OR ABOUT 185
MILES...300 KM...EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AT 19/1700 UTC MOVING
WNW AT 13 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 100 KT AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB
MAKING EMILY A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON
SCALE. SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT EMILY CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
WITH A MUCH IMPROVED SATELLITE APPEARANCE VERSUS A FEW HOURS
AGO. DEEP CONVECTION HAS NOW WRAPPED COMPLETELY AROUND THE
CENTER AND A WELL-DEFINED EYE FORMED THIS MORNING AROUND 1200
UTC.  NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION NOW EXTENDS OUTWARD 150-200 NM
FROM THE CENTER WITH OUTER RAINBANDS UPWARDS OF 500 NM FROM THE
CENTER MAINLY E OF EMILY OVER THE CENTRAL GLFMEX.  EMILY REMAINS
OVER THE SW SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE
HURRICANE ON A GENERAL W TO NW MOTION THROUGH THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS.  ON THIS COURSE...THE CENTER WILL APPROACH THE NE COAST
OF MEXICO LATER TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...RAINBANDS CONTAINING VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS PRECEDE EMILY BY SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES AND ARE ALREADY MOVING ASHORE THE SE COAST OF
TEXAS AND E COAST OF MEXICO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E ATLC ALONG 36W/37W S OF 19N MOVING W
10-15 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A GOOD SATELLITE
SIGNATURE EVEN THOUGH DEEP CONVECTION IS ABSENT.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 150-200 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ALONG 56W/57W S OF 15N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE
LEADING EDGE OF A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY SURGE AND AFRICAN DUST
LIMITING DEEP CONVECTION TO WITHIN THE ITCZ.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 50W-60W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 67W S OF 20N MOVING
W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN TANDEM WITH AND
INTERACT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST ALONG ROUGHLY 75W.
AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WHEN WAVES INTERACT WITH UPPER
LOWS/TROUGHS...THE PRECISE LOCATION IS DIFFICULT DISCERN DUE TO
THE UPPER TROUGH DOMINATING THE SATELLITE AND WIND SIGNATURE.
NONETHELESS...AMPLE MOISTURE ALONG AND E OF THE WAVE AXIS
COUPLED WITH LARGE SCALE UPPER DYNAMICS/LIFT IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS N OF 15N E OF 71W.  THE STRONGEST AND
MOST NUMEROUS ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY JUST NE OF PUERTO RICO AND
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
WESTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS PRODUCING INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS/TSTMS
MAINLY N OF 15N DUE TO THE PREVAILING SLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER TROUGH.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 17N10W 7N25W 13N35W 10N60W THEN
ACROSS N PORTIONS OF S AMERICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 250 NM S OF ITCZ E OF 35W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 45W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
HURRICANE EMILY REMAINS THE FOCUS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AS IT
APPROACHES THE NE MEXICO COAST. CLOUDINESS AND OUTER RAINBANDS
COVER MUCH OF THE W HALF OF THE GLFMEX W OF 87W.  E OF 87W...A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE EXTREME W ATLC
WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER CONFLUENCE AND SUBSIDENCE PRODUCING SOME
DRYING ALOFT.  STILL...SLIGHTLY COOLER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY OVER THE E GLFMEX AND
FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
WESTWARD.  THIS ALONG WITH AMPLE DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE WILL BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST SOME OF
WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. AT THE
SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THE
N GULF COAST THROUGH THE NEXT 2 DAYS MAINTAINING LIGHT TO
MODERATE ELY FLOW OUTSIDE THE CIRCULATION OF EMILY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE ONLY EFFECT THAT REMAIN OF HURRICANE EMILY IN THE CARIBBEAN
IS SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING SEWD INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN.
ELSEWHERE...A LARGE RETROGRADING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC
EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO THE N COAST OF
COLOMBIA IS THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER. STRONG DIVERGENCE S AND E OF
THE TROUGH AXIS IS PRODUCING AND AREA OF SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA/COSTA RICA S OF 12N
BETWEEN 75W-84W. ADDITIONALLY...THE UPPER TROUGH IS INTERACTING
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE PASSING PUERTO RICO AND PRODUCING SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER E HISPANIOLA...PUERTO
RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 15N E OF 71W.. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD WESTWARD WITH THE RETROGRADING UPPER TROUGH
PRODUCING A UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN OVER THE AREA DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN PREVAILS OVER THE ATLC
WATERS WITH A BROAD DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC WITH
MEAN AXIS FROM 30N60W SW OVER THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA AND AN E/W
ORIENTED RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL/E ATLC ALONG ROUGHLY 20N.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED OVER THE W HALF OF
THE ATLC WHERE LARGE SCALE LIFT AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
BROAD TROUGH ARE TRIGGERING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS W OF 60W.  THE STRONGEST AND MOST NUMEROUS OF
THIS ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST NE OF THE PUERTO RICA
NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE. THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
2 DAYS WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS BECOMING FOCUSED W OF 70W BY WED. OVER
THE E ATLC...THE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A SERIES
OF STRONG LOW LEVEL ELY SURGES AND AFRICAN DUST.  THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE FIRST SURGE EXTENDS FROM THE ITCZ NEAR 50W NW
THROUGH 19N60W THEN 30N65W AND EXTENDS EWD TO APPROXIMATELY 45W.
FURTHER E...A SECOND SURGE IS OBSERVED MOVING OFF THE COAST OF
AFRICA WITH LEADING EDGE NEAR 31W/32W.  THIS SURGE IS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN IMPRESSIVE OUTBREAK OF AFRICAN DUST WHICH IS OBSERVED IN
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY EXTENDING AS FAR N AS S SPAIN.

$$
RHOME



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net