[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191304 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL.
805 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2005

...CORRECTED FOR SATELLITE TIME...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE EMILY IS CENTERED NEAR 23.7N 94.0W OR ABOUT 235
MILES...380 KM...EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AT 19/1200 UTC MOVING
WNW AT 13 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 100 KT AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB
MAKING EMILY A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON
SCALE. SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. EMILY CONTINUES
TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND IS
FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN UNTIL LANDFALL LATE TONIGHT
INTO WED MORNING. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
EMILY REMAINS ON THE SW SIDE OF A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE THAT IS
OVER THE NE GULF. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 21N-26.5N BETWEEN
91W-96.5W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION TO THE E WITHIN
45/60 NM OF LINE 24N85W-26N91W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E ATLC IS ALONG 36W/37W S OF 19N MOVING W
10-15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS BECOME TILTED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
WITH THE N PORTION LAGGING THE S PORTION. WELL-DEFINED
INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ON THE
FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. WAVE REMAINS VOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND THE
PRESENCE OF AFRICAN DUST.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ALONG 55W S OF 15N MOVING W
10-15 KT. WAVE CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY SURGE. CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO WITHIN THE
ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 66W/67W S OF 20N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE DUE
TO ITS INTERACTION WITH AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO THE E AND THE
UPPER MID-OCEANIC TROUGH DIPPING INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
RESULTING IN WIDE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 13N WITHIN 120 NM E AND
180 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 6N22W 9N33W 9N52W 12N63W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE S
OF THE ITCZ AXIS TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 53W-60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA WITHIN
120 NM S OF THE AXIS FROM 16W-19W. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 125 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 43W-53W AND S
OF 20N TO THE ITCZ W OF 53W TO THE LESSER ANTILLES.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
HURRICANE EMILY REMAINS THE FOCUS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IS
MOVING TOWARD NE MEXICO. AN ELONGATED...BUT WELL-DEFINED UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS SITUATED JUST E OF EMILY OVER THE NE GULF WITH
ASSOCIATED RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD NE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE WITH A SECOND UPPER HIGH OVER W SOUTH CAROLINA. W OF
EMILY...THE UPPER TROUGH IS INLAND OVER TEXAS INTO MEXICO WITH A
SMALL UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THE OUTFLOW
OF EMILY EXTENDS TOWARD THE N AND E...LIMITED TO THE S AND W. IN
THE WAKE OF EMILY...AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH WESTWARD
FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE SE GULF AND THE NW CARIBBEAN TODAY INTO WED RESIDING OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA BY THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE ONLY EFFECT OF HURRICANE EMILY ON THE CARIBBEAN IS HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS W CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
WITH LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N FROM JAMAICA TO
86W. ELSEWHERE...THE UPPER LEVEL MID-OCEANIC TROUGH DOMINATES
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH ASSOCIATED MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND
RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT SPREADING WESTWARD OVER THE AREA. AN
EMBEDDED UPPER LOW IS JUST S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 17N73W WITH A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE AREA FROM N OF 11N FROM 69W-81W.
THIS DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN...STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER LEVEL MID-OCEANIC TROUGH
IS GENERATING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD WESTWARD WITH THE RETROGRADING UPPER TROUGH PRODUCING A
UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN OVER THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN PREVAILS OVER THE ATLC
WATERS WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL MID-OCEANIC TROUGH OVER THE W
ATLC W OF 64W TO ACROSS FLORIDA AND AN NE/SW ORIENTED RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH JUST E OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 16N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE 32N68W TO E CUBA NEAR
20N75W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THE BAHAMAS TO W CUBA BETWEEN
76W-80W...WHICH IS A SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH. IN
THE E ATLC...BROAD UPPER HIGH IS ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR
13N16W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W TO NEAR 16N30W. AT THE
SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE AZORES SW TO A
1023 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 30N45W CONTINUING W ALONG
30N TO OVER THE SE UNITED STATES.

$$
WALLACE







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