[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 182042
TCDAT5
HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2005

A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FLEW INTO EMILY TODAY AND CONFIRMED
THAT THE HURRICANE WEAKENED AS SUGGESTED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
MINIMUM PRESSURE ROSE TO 984 MB AND MAXIMUM WINDS MEASURED BY THE
SFMR SUPPORT ONLY A 65-KT HURRICANE. THE INNER CORE OF THE
HURRICANE WAS DISRUPTED OVER YUCATAN BUT SATELLITE STILL SHOWS
SEVERAL CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE
CENTER OF CIRCULATION WITH A FAIR OUTFLOW. THE HURRICANE WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE OVER THE WARMER WATERS...ABOUT 30 DEGREE CELSIUS...OF THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOON AND THE SHEAR IS LOW ALONG THE TRACK.
IN ADDITION...ALL GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE 200 MB
ANTICYLONE OVER EMILY WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED. THEREFORE...
RE-STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED. BECAUSE EMILY WEAKENED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER YUCATAN...IT IS NOT CLEAR IF THE CYCLONE WILL
REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...BUT IT IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

EMILY CONTINUES ON TRACK...ABOUT 295/14 KNOTS AROUND THE DEEP LAYER
MEAN HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
HIGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND COULD EVEN BUILD WESTWARD. THIS
PATTERN WOULD KEEP EMILY ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK UNTIL
LANDFALL OVER THE STATE OF TAMAULIPAS...NORTHEAST MEXICO IN ABOUT
24 TO 36 HOURS. ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE
TRACK...OR A HURRICANE LARGER THAN FORECAST...COULD BRING STRONGER
WINDS TO SOUTHERN TEXAS. THEREFORE...A HURRICANE WATCH AND A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      18/2100Z 22.3N  91.0W    65 KT
 12HR VT     19/0600Z 23.0N  93.0W    75 KT
 24HR VT     19/1800Z 24.0N  95.5W    90 KT
 36HR VT     20/0600Z 24.5N  98.0W    80 KT
 48HR VT     20/1800Z 24.5N 100.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     21/1800Z...DISSIPATED


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