[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 170858
TCDAT5
HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005

AT 0324Z...THE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
REPORTED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 153 KT.  THE STANDARD ADJUSTMENT OF
THIS VALUE TO THE SURFACE WOULD YIELD 138 KT...OR JUST ABOVE THE
CATEGORY FIVE THRESHOLD.  AT THAT TIME HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE WAS RISING RAPIDLY AND ON THE NEXT PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT ONLY 132 KT WINDS WERE FOUND.  IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT EMILY REACHED CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY BRIEFLY AROUND 03Z.  THE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 130 KT.  WHILE THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS
RESTRICTED IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT...CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE
FAVORABLE FOR EMILY TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL IT REACHES
THE YUCATAN.  DEPENDING ON THE PRECISE TRACK...EMILY COULD SPEND
ABOUT 12 HOURS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND SUCH A SMALL SYSTEM
IS LIKELY TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED OVER LAND.  HOWEVER...THERE
WILL BE AMPLE TIME IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WARM GULF
WATERS FOR EMILY TO REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE ITS FINAL
LANDFALL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/17.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST TRACK.  MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST NORTH OF
THE HURRICANE FOR THE DURATION.  IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...EMILY WILL BE
APPROACHING A MODEST MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND THIS COULD BRIEFLY RESULT IN A RIGHTWARD DEFLECTION OF
THE TRACK BEFORE A MORE WESTWARD MOTION RESUMES.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO A TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      17/0900Z 18.0N  82.0W   130 KT
 12HR VT     17/1800Z 18.9N  84.5W   130 KT
 24HR VT     18/0600Z 20.2N  87.4W   125 KT
 36HR VT     18/1800Z 21.5N  90.2W    80 KT
 48HR VT     19/0600Z 22.7N  93.0W    95 KT
 72HR VT     20/0600Z 24.0N  97.5W   100 KT
 96HR VT     21/0600Z 24.5N 102.5W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     22/0600Z...DISSIPATED


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