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WTNT35 KNHC 170000
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  24A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005

...RAINBANDS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE EMILY
SPREADING OVER JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN
COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PROGRESO...
INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA
LATER THIS EVENING.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN... AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE  79.5 WEST OR ABOUT  140 MILES...
230 KM... SOUTHWEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA AND ABOUT 195 MILES...
315 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH... 30 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE MOVING AWAY
FROM JAMAICA TONIGHT AND WILL BE NEAR GRAND CAYMAN TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 155 MPH... 250 KM/HR... WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  EMILY IS A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE
EXPECTED... AND EMILY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE AT
TIMES... DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM... FROM
THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
150 MILES... 240 KM.  FOR JAMAICA... HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD
STILL OCCUR TONIGHT IN GUSTS IN RAINBANDS ALONG THE COASTS... WITH
POSSIBLE SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...
ESPECIALLY ABOVE ABOUT 3000 FEET.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 929 MB...27.43 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES... ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES... ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF JAMAICA AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.

EMILY COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER
JAMAICA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS... WITH SOME 1 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA.  RAINS WILL BE INCREASING OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA ON SUNDAY WITH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE... AND LOCAL MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES.  THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...17.1 N... 79.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...155 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 929 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB


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