[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161039
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE EMILY IS CENTERED NEAR 15.3N 75.0W OR ABOUT 215
MILES... 350 KM... SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AT 16/0600 UTC MOVING
WNW 16 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 953 MB AND THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 115 KT GUSTING TO 140 KT. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/ WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  EMILY CONTINUES
TO STRENGTHEN... OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE EYE HAS
CONTINUED TO CLEAR OUT LEAVING WELL DEFINED EYE IN INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR WILL REMAIN
LIGHT EMILY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN HISPANIOLA
AND 78W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W S OF 17N MOVING W 15 KT.
BROAD ROTATION IS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES.  THE WAVE
IS ACCOMPANIED BY A SURGE IN AFRICAN DUST/DRY AIR E OF 41W WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION MANLY ALONG THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 8N-10N BETWEEN 32W-38W.

HIGH-AMPLITUDE WAVE ALONG 49W S OF 23N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL ROTATION NEAR
22N48W ALSO ENHANCING A LARGE AREAS OF TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM OF
ROTATION. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS N OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES...MOISTURE FROM THIS TROPICAL WAVE SHOULD
ENTER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON SUN.


...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 14N18W 10N30W 8N40W 10N50W 8N60W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 8N40W 9N50W.
A SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 200NM OF 15N18W CONTINUES
TO MOVE OFF SENEGAL.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR 33N108W CONTINUES TO PUSH
TO THE SW...AREAS OF DIVERGENCE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW IS
HELPING TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST.  AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER SE LA COAST WITH RIDGING TO
THE E COVERING NORTHERN FLORIDA ALONG WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND THE SE UNITED STATES.  SE OF THE HIGH AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE MID/UPPER LOW OVER NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING
NORTHWARD OVER  SE FLORIDA.  HURRICANE EMILY IS FORECAST TO
ENTER THE GULF OF MEXICO ON MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
HURRICANE EMILY REMAINS THE STORY IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
WITH RATHER DRY WEATHER BUILDING OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF
EMILY.  WEAK MID/UPPER HIGH IS SE OF EMILY NEAR 16N68W IS
PRODUCING A GOOD OUTFLOW PATTERN OVER EMILY SPECIALLY IN THE N
SEMICIRCLE.  A MID/UPPER LOW IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N84W
EXTENDING A TROUGH ESE TO 12N78W SOUTH OF EMILY.  THE UPPER LOW
HAS MOVED WEST LETTING THE OUTFLOW OVER EMILY BECOME BETTER
ESTABLISHED. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES UNDER THE UPPER
LOW FROM  15N-19N BETWEEN 82W-86W.  OUTER BANDS OF CONVECTION
FROM EMILY ARE MAKING THERE WAY THROUGH JAMAICA AND
HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MID-OCEANIC TROUGH REMAINS WELL DEFINED WITH A MID/UPPER LOW
NEAR 33N49W... TROUGHING SSW TO 19N59W.  THIS UPPER TROUGH IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR STRONG SHEAR OVER THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 49W.
S OF THE THE TROUGH....  BROAD MID/UPPER HIGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR
DOMINICA E TO 17N43W WITH VERY DRY ALOFT.  FARTHER W...  A
STATIONARY MID/UPPER HIGH LOCATED NEAR 31N75W.   OTHERWISE E OF
40W... LARGE AFRICAN ANTICYCLONE CONTROLS THE AREA WITH RIDGE
AXIS FROM NW MAURITANIA TO 209N41W WITH DEEP ELY FLOW S OF THE
RIDGE.  CONVECTION REMAINS ACTIVE OVER W AFRICA ...AS SCATTERED
MODERATED CONVECTION CONTINUES PUSHES WEST OFF THE COAST OF
SENEGAL.

$$
JP/DB




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