[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 160601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE EMILY IS CENTERED NEAR 15.3N 75.0W OR ABOUT 215
MILES... 350 KM... SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AT 16/0600 UTC MOVING
WNW 16 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 953 MB AND THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 115 KT GUSTING TO 140 KT. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/ WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.   AIRCRAFT
RECONNAISSANCE CONFIRMS THAT THE HURRICANE IS DEEPENING AGAIN.
EMILY HAS STRENGTHENED TO A CATEGORY FOUR WITH BETTER-DEFINED
RAINBANDS ON ITS N AND E SIDE WITH OUTFLOW EXPANDING
IMPRESSIVELY IN ALL QUADS BUT SW... A WELL DEFINED EYE IS
VISIBLE ON SATELLITE...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR COULD
LESSEN EVEN MORE BY LATE TODAY IF THE CYCLONE GAINS A LITTLE
LATITUDE AND THE UPPER LOW DROPS MORE TO THE WSW.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 14N-21N BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND 78W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E-CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W S OF 17N MOVING W 15
KT.  BROAD ROTATION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGES.  THE WAVE IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURGE IN AFRICAN DUST/DRY AIR E OF 37W WITH
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION BETWEEN 8N-10 BETWEEN 32W-37W NEAR
THE ITCZ.

HIGH-AMPLITUDE WAVE ALONG 48W S OF 23N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A PRONOUNCED V-SHAPE WITH MID-LEVEL
ROTATION NEAR 21N48W ALSO ENHANCING A LARGE AREAS OF TSTMS
WITHIN 90 NM OF ROTATION.  COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE WILL HAVE TOO MUCH SHEAR TO DEVELOP .
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS N OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...MOISTURE FROM THIS TROPICAL WAVE SHOULD ENTER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS ON SUN.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 54W HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED INTO NORTHERN S
AMERICA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 12N17W 10N23W 10N31W 9N40W 11N45W 12N50W
8N60W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF
LINE 9N33W 9N47W 8N60W.  A HUGE TSTM CLUSTER IS ABOUT TO MOVE
OFF SENEGAL.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR 33N100W WITH DIVERGENCE ON
ITS E SIDE HELPING TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION W OF 96W N OF 28N.  AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER SE LA
COVERS NORTHERN FLORIDA...THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SE UNITED
STATES.  SE OF THE HIGH AN INVERTED TROUGHING  EXTENDS FROM THE
MID/UPPER LOW OVER NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING NORTHWARD OVER  SE
FLORIDA.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN
80W-86W AND OVER VENEZUELA FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 70W-76W. ANOTHER
BUSY DAY OF CONVECTION IS LIKELY TODAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED.  HURRICANE EMILY IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE GULF OF
MEXICO ON MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
HURRICANE EMILY REMAINS THE STORY IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
WITH RATHER DRY WEATHER NOW OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF EMILY.
MID/UPPER HIGH IS SE OF EMILY NEAR 15N65W IS PRODUCING A GOOD
OUTFLOW PATTERN OVER EMILY SPECIALLY  IN THE N SEMICIRCLE.  A
MID/UPPER LOW IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N85W EXTENDING A
TROUGH ESE TO 12N75W SOUTH OF EMILY.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION LIES UNDER THE UPPER LOW WITH OUTER BANDS OF
CONVECTION FROM EMILY MAKING THERE WAY THROUGH JAMAICA...
HISPANIOLA AND CUBA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MID-OCEANIC TROUGH REMAINS WELL DEFINED WITH A MID/UPPER LOW
NEAR 31N49W... TROUGHING SSW TO 19N55W.  THIS UPPER TROUGH IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR STRONG SHEAR OVER THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 48W.
S OF THE THE TROUGH....  BROAD MID/UPPER HIGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR
DOMINICA E TO 16N48W WITH VERY DRY ALOFT.  FARTHER W...
MID/UPPER HIGH LOCATED NEAR 31N75W.   OTHERWISE E OF 40W...
LARGE AFRICAN ANTICYCLONE CONTROLS THE AREA WITH RIDGE AXIS FROM
NW MAURITANIA TO 19N41W WITH DEEP ELY FLOW S OF THE RIDGE.
CONVECTION REMAINS ACTIVE OVER W AFRICA ...AS SCATTERED
MODERATED/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION PUSHES WEST OFF THE COAST
OF SENEGAL.

$$
JP/DB





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