[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT75 KNHC 160253
SPFAT5
HURRICANE EMILY PROBABILITIES NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST FRI JUL 15 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE  74.2 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  8PM AST MON JUL 18 2005

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

17.0N  79.9W      48  2  X  X 50   MMFR 185N 926W     X  X  X  8  8
18.6N  83.2W       X 37  1  X 38   MMMD 210N 897W     X  X  8 15 23
20.1N  86.4W       X  4 26  X 30   BURAS LA           X  X  X  2  2
MKJP 179N 768W    32  X  X  X 32   NEW ORLEANS LA     X  X  X  2  2
MKJS 185N 779W    27  1  X  X 28   NEW IBERIA LA      X  X  X  2  2
MWCG 193N 814W     3 33  X  X 36   PORT ARTHUR TX     X  X  X  3  3
MUCF 221N 805W     X  3  1  X  4   GALVESTON TX       X  X  X  4  4
MUSN 216N 826W     X 13  7  X 20   FREEPORT TX        X  X  X  4  4
MUHA 230N 824W     X  2  6  X  8   PORT O CONNOR TX   X  X  X  4  4
MUAN 219N 850W     X  4 22  X 26   CORPUSCHRISTI TX   X  X  X  3  3
MMCZ 205N 869W     X  1 27  1 29   BROWNSVILLE TX     X  X  X  5  5
MZBZ 175N 883W     X  X  7  6 13   GULF 28N 89W       X  X  X  6  6
MGPB 157N 886W     X  X  1  3  4   GULF 28N 91W       X  X  X  8  8
MHNJ 165N 859W     X  4  8  X 12   GULF 28N 93W       X  X  X  8  8
MMSO 238N 982W     X  X  X  3  3   GULF 28N 95W       X  X  X  7  7
MMTM 222N 979W     X  X  X  2  2   GULF 27N 96W       X  X  X  7  7
MMTX 210N 974W     X  X  X  2  2   GULF 25N 96W       X  X  X  9  9
MMVR 192N 961W     X  X  X  2  2

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8PM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  8PM SAT TO  8AM SUN
C FROM  8AM SUN TO  8PM SUN
D FROM  8PM SUN TO  8PM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8PM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER KNABB


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