[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 160000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE EMILY IS CENTERED NEAR 14.9N 73.4W OR ABOUT 305
MILES... 490 KM... SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AT 16/0000 UTC
MOVING WNW 16 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB AND THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 100 KT GUSTING TO 120 KT. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/ WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  DURING THE
DAY...WLY SHEAR ALONG WITH AN EYEWALL CYCLE TOOK ITS TOLL ON THE
CYCLONE WITH ONLY AN INTERMITTENT EYE FEATURE ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE PICTURES.  HOWEVER RECENTLY THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE
DISTINCT AND AICRAFT RECONNNAISSANCE CONFIRMS THAT THE HURRICANE
IS DEEPENING AGAIN.  EMILY APPEARS TO BE RE-ORGANIZING INTO A
LARGER SYSTEM WITH BETTER-DEFINED RAINBANDS ON ITS N AND E SIDE
WITH OUTFLOW EXPANDING IMPRESSIVELY IN ALL QUADS BUT SW.  A
LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS THE SOURCE OF THE
MODEST SHEAR...THOUGH MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR COULD LESSEN
EVEN MORE BY LATE TOMORROW IF THE CYCLONE GAINS A LITTLE
LATITUDE AND THE UPPER LOW DROPS MORE TO THE WSW.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND 75W
WITH HEAVY RAINS NOW AFFECTING THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E-CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W S OF 17N MOVING W 15
KT.  LARGE 24 HOUR PRESSURE RISES ARE OBSERVED IN THE CAPE
VERDES AND BROAD ROTATION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGES.  THE
WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A SURGE IN AFRICAN DUST/DRY AIR E OF 37W
WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 10N34W NEAR THE ITCZ.

HIGH-AMPLITUDE CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 46W S OF 23N
MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT.  SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A PRONOUNCED
V-SHAPE WITH MID-LEVEL ROTATION NEAR 18N47W ALSO ENHANCING A
LARGE AREAS OF TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM OF 19N47W.  COMPUTER MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE WILL HAVE TOO MUCH
SHEAR TO DEVELOP ANYTIME SOON.  ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MID-LEVEL
ENERGY WILL PASS N OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...MOISTURE FROM THIS
TROPICAL WAVE SHOULD ENTER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON SUN.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 54W HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED INTO NORTHERN S
AMERICA.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO IS NO LONGER IN THE AREA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 13N16W 9N23W 10N31W 8N38W 12N48W 10N54W
9N61W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF
LINE 8N37W 7N48W 5N48W.  A HUGE TSTM CLUSTER IS ABOUT TO MOVE
OFF SENEGAL.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE WERE AVAILABLE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION.  IN
ADDITION... A CUTOFF MID/UPPER LOW IS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WITH
DIVERGENCE ON ITS E SIDE HELPING TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION W OF 90W N OF 27.5N.  THE UPPER PATTERN
HASN'T CHANGED MUCH SINCE YESTERDAY... AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
FROM NE MEXICO TO SW FLORIDA WITH INVERTED TROUGHING FROM THE
MID/UPPER LOW OVER NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING NORTHWARD OVER
FLORIDA.  ANOTHER BUSY DAY OF CONVECTION IS LIKELY TOMORROW WITH
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED.  HURRICANE EMILY IS FORECAST TO ENTER
THE GULF OF MEXICO ON MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
HURRICANE EMILY IS THE STORY IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
RATHER DRY WEATHER NOW OVER THE E CARIBBEAN.  MID/UPPER HIGH IS
SE OF EMILY NEAR 14N69W... TRYING TO SPREAD CLOSER TO THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE.  HOWEVER A MID/UPPER LOW IS IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N85W EXTENDING A TROUGH ESE TO 12N74W NEAR THE
HURRICANE.  THIS IS A COMPLEX LOW WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH ALSO
EXTENDING FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS THRU FLORIDA.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION LIES UNDER THE UPPER LOW WITH BANDS OF
CONVECTION FROM EMILY APPROACHING JAMAICA.  IT APPEARS THAT THE
CYCLONE WOULD HAVE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
INTENSIFICATION IF GAIN LATITUDE AND AVOID THE MID/UPPER
TROUGHING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.  A TRACK SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE
RIGHT COULD OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH EMILY AS
MID/UPPER RIDGING APPEARS TO BE VERY FAR TO THE N OVER THE W
ATLC...ERODED A BIT BY THE INVERTED TROUGH.  HEAVY RAINS SHOULD
OVERSPREAD HAITI OVERNIGHT AND JAMAICA/SE CUBA BY MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MID-OCEANIC TROUGH IS PROBABLY THE MOST DEFINED I HAVE SEEN
ALL SEASON WITH A MID/UPPER LOW NEAR 31N49W... TROUGHING SSW TO
18N55W WITH ANOTHER WEAK LOW POSSIBLY NEAR 22N53W.  THIS UPPER
TROUGH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR STRONG SHEAR OVER THE TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 46W.  S OF THE THE TROUGH.... MID/UPPER HIGH EXTENDS FROM
NEAR DOMINICA E TO 16N49W WITH VERY DRY ALOFT.  FARTHER W...
MID/UPPER HIGH IS STATIONARY NEAR 32N74W WITH PLENTY OF HIGH
CLOUDINESS SHOOTING DOWN THE E SIDE OF THE HIGH ACROSS BERMUDA N
OF 26N BETWEEN 59W-70W.   OTHERWISE E OF 40W... LARGE AFRICAN
ANTICYCLONE CONTROLS THE AREA WITH RIDGE AXIS FROM NW MAURITANIA
TO 20N41W WITH DEEP ELY FLOW S OF THE RIDGE.  CONVECTION IS
ACTIVE OVER W AFRICA TODAY...ESPECIALLY SENEGAL.

$$
BLAKE




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