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WTNT35 KNHC 152042
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST FRI JUL 15 2005

...EMILY WEAKENS BUT EXPECTED TO REGAIN STRENGTH AS IT MOVES TOWARD
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD
TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER...AND FOR THE ENTIRE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI
BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS ESTIMATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE  72.8 WEST OR ABOUT  350
MILES...565 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

EMILY HAS BEEN  MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL
PASS NOT FAR TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES.

EMILY MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER
JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 12 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA.  THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...14.7 N... 72.8 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 969 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

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