[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT75 KNHC 151436
SPFAT5
HURRICANE EMILY PROBABILITIES NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST FRI JUL 15 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE  70.9 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  8AM AST MON JUL 18 2005

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

16.5N  77.0W      48  1  X  X 49   MZBZ 175N 883W     X  X  X  9  9
18.0N  80.0W       1 35  1  X 37   MGPB 157N 886W     X  X  X  2  2
19.5N  83.0W       X  5 24  1 30   MHNJ 165N 859W     X  X  2  7  9
MTCA 183N 738W     5  X  X  X  5   MNPC 141N 834W     X  X  1  1  2
MKJP 179N 768W    33  6  X  X 39   MMFR 185N 926W     X  X  X  3  3
MKJS 185N 779W    10 26  X  X 36   MMMD 210N 897W     X  X  X 16 16
MWCG 193N 814W     X 22 11  X 33   MARATHON FL        X  X  2  3  5
MUGM 200N 751W     1  1  X  X  2   KEY WEST FL        X  X  4  4  8
MUCM 214N 779W     X  5  3  X  8   MARCO ISLAND FL    X  X  X  2  2
MUCF 221N 805W     X  3 14  X 17   BURAS LA           X  X  X  2  2
MUSN 216N 826W     X  1 23  2 26   GULF 29N 87W       X  X  X  2  2
MUHA 230N 824W     X  X 14  4 18   GULF 28N 89W       X  X  X  6  6
MUAN 219N 850W     X  X 15 10 25   GULF 28N 91W       X  X  X  6  6
MMCZ 205N 869W     X  X  4 18 22   GULF 28N 93W       X  X  X  3  3

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  8AM SAT TO  8PM SAT
C FROM  8PM SAT TO  8AM SUN
D FROM  8AM SUN TO  8AM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA


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