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WTNT35 KNHC 151149
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  18A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM AST FRI JUL 15 2005

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE EMILY CONTINUES TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER...AND FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO
PORT-AU-PRINCE.

AT 8 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR VENEZUELA
AND FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND ARUBA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 70.0 WEST OR ABOUT 345 MILES...
555 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 525
MILES... 845 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES EMILY A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST
THAT EMILY MAY HAVE WEAKENED A LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK THE INTENSITY SHORTLY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  40 MILES... 65 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  952 MB...28.11 INCHES.

EMILY MAY PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. EMILY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER JAMAICA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.  THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 8 AM AST POSITION...14.1 N... 70.0 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...135 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 952 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

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