[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 150300
TCDAT5
HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2005

EMILY CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY.  DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS AT 00Z WERE 6.0
FROM ALL AGENCIES...CORRESPONDING TO AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 115
KT.  AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
INDICATE THAT THE PRESSURE AND WINDS ARE NOT FAR BEHIND THE
SATELLITE SIGNATURE.  THE FIRST FIX AT 2347Z INCLUDED A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 962 MB...DOWN 12 MB FROM ABOUT SIX HOURS EARLIER...AND
A MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 100 KT IN THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT.  THE PRESSURE HAD FALLEN TO 958 MB AT 0130Z WITH MAXIMUM
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS UP TO 125 KT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT...
SUPPORTING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 110 KT.  NOT MUCH SEEMS TO BE
IN THE WAY OF EMILY MAINTAINING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS...POSSIBLY
REACHING CATEGORY FOUR...DURING ITS PATH THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
THE GFDL MAINTAINS A NEAR-120 KT HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS...AND WHILE THE GFDL CURIOUSLY WEAKENS EMILY IN THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO...THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS A MAJOR HURRICANE BEYOND
72 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS SHIPS LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ALTHOUGH THE HURRICANE TOOK A SLIGHT JOG TO THE LEFT...OR SOUTH...OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AN INITIAL
MOTION OF 285/17 SEEMS TO HAVE RESUMED.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS ON CONTINUING THIS GENERAL
MOTION.  HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY BEYOND THAT TIME...THE OVERALL
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE NORTH.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK...BY AN INCREASING AMOUNT BEYOND 48 HOURS...BUT REMAINS ON
THE LEFT SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      15/0300Z 13.6N  67.5W   110 KT
 12HR VT     15/1200Z 14.4N  70.1W   115 KT
 24HR VT     16/0000Z 15.7N  73.6W   115 KT
 36HR VT     16/1200Z 17.0N  77.1W   115 KT
 48HR VT     17/0000Z 18.2N  80.2W   115 KT
 72HR VT     18/0000Z 20.5N  86.5W   115 KT
 96HR VT     19/0000Z 22.5N  91.5W   100 KT
120HR VT     20/0000Z 24.5N  95.5W   100 KT


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