[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE EMILY IS CENTERED NEAR 13.3N 66.7W AT 15/0000 UTC...OR
ABOUT 415 MILES...670 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOVING WNW 18 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB.  SEE LATEST FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/ WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
EMILY IS NOW THE EARLIEST SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE EVER (SINCE
1851) SEEN IN THE ATLC BASIN.. BEATING THE PREVIOUS RECORD IN
1916 BY THREE DAYS.  THE EYE CONTINUES TO WARM WITH IMPRESSIVE
CONVECTION AROUND THE EYE IN A VERY CIRCULAR FASHION.  THE
SYSTEM IS RATHER SMALL WITH MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER AND ONLY A FEW DISTINCT
RAINBANDS...THOUGH THERE ARE PLENTY OF SHALLOWER RAINBANDS
ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR E ATLC ALONG 23W/24W S OF 19N MOVING
W 15 KT.  24 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS IN THE CAPE VERDES SUGGEST THAT
THE WAVE HASN'T PASSED THOSE ISLANDS THOUGH SATELLITE SHOWS THE
BEST MID-LEVEL TURNING ALONG 27W.  THE ROTATION NOTED IS
PROBABLY A REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM THE LARGE CONVECTION BLOWUP
OVER W AFRICA A FEW DAYS AGO AND NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE TRUE
WAVE AXIS.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 42W S
OF 22N WITH A 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 16N MOVING W 15
KT.  THE LOW IS BETTER-DEFINED THAN YESTERDAY WITH HINTS OF
BANDING BEGINNING TO FORM IN THE N SEMICIRCLE.  CONVECTIVE
REMAINS MODERATE WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 15.5N TO
20N BETWEEN 39W-42W.  A LARGE TROUGH SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGES
ALONG 50W SHOULD INDUCE A MORE POLEWARD MOTION TO THE LOW WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS AREA COULD
BECOME THE NEXT TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT TREKS OVER THE OPEN
OCEAN... THOUGH UPPER WINDS ARE MARGINAL.

W ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 50W/51W S OF 12N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
LONG-TERM SATELLITE LOOPS SUGGEST THAT THE WAVE IS CONFINED TO
THE ITCZ AS IT IS STUCK BETWEEN TWO LARGE FEATURES.. EMILY AND
THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE WAVE NEAR 42W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 75 NM OF 8N50W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER S MEXICO ALONG 94W S OF 19N MOVING W 15-20
KT. MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS CONFINED TO THE EPAC THOUGH
CONVECTION OCCASIONALLY FLARES NEAR THE WAVE AXIS OVER MEXICO.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 16N10W 12N25W 15N40W 7N50W 9N60W
THEN ACROSS N PORTION OF S AMERICA.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 9.5N-11N BETWEEN 25W-34W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 35W-41W AND S OF 10N W OF 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING DOMINATES THE SRN GULF WITH THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL AXIS ALIGNED FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO NE FLORIDA AND
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE N GULF COAST.  N OF THE
RIDGE...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN EXISTS WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
OBSERVED CLIPPING THE N EXTENT OF THE GULF...PRODUCING A LARGE
AREA OF TSTMS INLAND FROM ALABAMA TO SE TEXAS.  THE MOST NOTABLE
OF THESE DISTURBANCES IS A MID/UPPER LOW NEAR DALLAS SHIFTING
SE.  THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AN UNSETTLED/STORMY
PATTERN OVER THE NW GLFMEX AND ALONG THE SE TEXAS COAST
TOMORROW.  S OF THE RIDGE...LIGHT ELY FLOW IS OBSERVED WITH
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT MAINTAINING A TRANQUIL
PATTERN.  THIS DRY/STABLE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE FURTHER
ENHANCED BY A DEVELOPING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE S
BAHAMAS AND E CUBA WHICH IS FORECAST TO BECOME CUTOFF AND
RETROGRADE WESTWARD REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FRI
NIGHT/EARLY SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
HURRICANE EMILY WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ATLC.  ITS CLOSENESS TO A
MID/UPPER LOW OVER E CUBA WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH INTO THE SW
CARIBBEAN MAY HELP DETERMINE HOW MUCH LATITUDE IT GAINS.
ELSEWHERE... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA/COSTA RICA NWD 14N BETWEEN
78W-84W AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE.  THE CUBAN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED MOVE WESTWARD OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS PRODUCING CONFLUENCE AND
DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS TO ITS WEST AND DIFFLUENCE/UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS TO ITS EAST.  THE NEXT INCREASE IN MOISTURE IN THE E
CARIBBEAN COULD BE EARLY MON AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES IN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE W ATLC EXTENDING E/W
ALONG 29N W OF 65W.  THE MID-OCEANIC TROUGH HAS INCREASED IN
STRENGTH IN RECENT DAYS... NOW LOCATED FROM A MID/UPPER LOW NEAR
28N47W WITH TROUGH S TO 17N47W WITH ANOTHER AXIS SW TO 23N62W.
ONLY A FEW TSTMS ARE NEAR 25N56W WITHIN THE TROUGH WITH RATHER
DRY AIR ALOFT ELSEWHERE. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD CUTOFF AND BEGIN
TO RETROGRADE. OVER THE E ATLC...A TROUGH IS N OF 28N E OF 40W
SKIRTING THE N EDGE OF THE AREA.  ANALYSIS OF SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT APPRECIABLE MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO THE W HALF OF
THE ATLC WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND AREAS OF AFRICAN DUST
COVERING THE AREA E OF 60W.  MID/UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE
TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS FROM WESTERN SAHARA TO 20N37W WSW TO
14N60W... BROKEN BY AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG 41W.  AT THE
SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1033 MB HIGH NW
OF THE AZORES NEAR 45N37W SW ALONG 31N60W THEN ACROSS N FLORIDA.

$$
BLAKE

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