[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 141851
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE EMILY IS CENTERED NEAR 12.9N 65.0W AT 14/1800 UTC...OR
ABOUT 490 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...MOVING WNW AT 16 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS
85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 976 MB.  SEE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/ WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEMONSTRATE A DEVELOPING
SYSTEM WITH A EYE RECENTLY BECOMING EVIDENT.  EMILY IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN NUMEROUS TSTMS EXTENDING OUTWARDS 60-90 NM FROM THE
CENTER.  ADDITIONALLY...OUTER RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH EMILY
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 325 NM FROM THE CENTER AND CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE WINDWARD/LEEWARD ISLANDS...ABC ISLANDS...AND N COAST
OF VENEZUELA.  THESE RAINBANDS SHOULD BEGIN TO PULL AWAY FROM
THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS TODAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS
OVER THE ABC ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS EVEN THOUGH THE
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE N.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR E ATLC ALONG 23W S OF 19N MOVING W AT
AN ESTIMATED SPEED OF 15-20 KT.  THE WAVE DISPLAYS A GOOD
SATELLITE SIGNATURE BUT APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY ALOFT.
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE ITCZ BETWEEN
22W-27W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 41W S OF 21N WITH A
1012 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.  THIS
WAVE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY AN IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE SIGNATURE WITH
A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION TO THE N
OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 15.5N-18N BETWEEN 39W-42W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF WAVE AXIS.  ANALYSIS OF WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES THE WAVE IS NEARING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC WHICH IS CREATING A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. AS A RESULT...THE LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A MORE
POLEWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL WAVE APPROXIMATELY 600 NM E OF THE BARBADOS ALONG 49W S
OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT.  THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE DOMINATED/MASKED BY THE MUCH LARGER
AND STRONGER CIRCULATION WITH THE WAVE ALONG 41W.  HOWEVER...THE
PRESENT POSITION IS CONFIRMED BY LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY
WHICH SHOWS A PERSISTENT CLOUD CLUSTER...MAINLY WITHIN THE
ITCZ...PROPAGATING WESTWARD WITH THIS FEATURE.  CURRENTLY...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 45W-55W.  UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE BUT THIS WAVE COULD
PRODUCE ENHANCED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG THE N COAST OF S
AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER S MEXICO ALONG 93W S OF 19N MOVING W 15-20
KT. THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTM
OVER S MEXICO IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST...AWAY FROM THE
DISCUSSION AREA...DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HRS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 16N10W 12N25W 15N40W 7N50W 9N60W
THEN ACROSS N PORTION OF S AMERICA.  SEE TROPICAL WAVES FOR
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING DOMINATES THE GLFMEX WITH THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL AXIS ALIGNED E/W ALONG 25N AND THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS ALONG THE N GULF COAST.  N OF THE RIDGE...A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN EXISTS WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE OBSERVED CLIPPING THE N
EXTENT OF THE GULF.  THE MOST NOTABLE OF THESE DISTURBANCES IS
CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS/OKLAHOMA WHICH IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER S LOUISIANA AND WITHIN 100 NM OF
THE COAST.  THIS SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD DURING THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS AND BE POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL TO S TEXAS BY
TOMORROW.  THIS PATTERN WILL PRODUCE AN UNSETTLED/STORMY PATTERN
OVER THE NW GLFMEX AND ALONG THE SE TEXAS COAST TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.  S OF THE RIDGE...LIGHT ELY FLOW IS OBSERVED WITH
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT MAINTAINING A TRANQUIL
PATTERN.  THIS DRY/STABLE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE FURTHER
ENHANCED BY A DEVELOPING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE S
BAHAMAS AND E CUBA WHICH IS FORECAST TO BECOME CUTOFF AND
RETROGRADE WESTWARD REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FRI
NIGHT/EARLY SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
HURRICANE EMILY WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ATLC.  ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM
THE COAST OF PANAMA/COSTA RICA NWD 14N BETWEEN 78W-84W.  THIS
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IN BETWEEN A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GLFMEX SEWD OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA AND A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER E CUBA.
THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS PRODUCING CONFLUENCE AND DRY/STABLE
CONDITIONS TO ITS WEST AND DIFFLUENCE/UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO ITS
EAST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE W HALF OF THE ATLC
EXTENDING E/W ALONG 26N. OVER THE E ATLC...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE HAS BEEN WEAKENED BY A SHARPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BETWEEN 40W-60W AND AN UPPER LOW NEAR 31N47W.  ANALYSIS OF
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT APPRECIABLE MOISTURE IS LIMITED
TO THE W HALF OF THE ATLC WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND AREAS OF
AFRICAN DUST COVERING THE AREA E OF 60W.  W OF 60W...A
DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER E CUBA/CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS TRIGGERING
AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 100-200 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 22N74W TO 25N70W TO 26N65W.  THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS
AS THE UPPER LOW BECOMES CUTOFF AND BEGINS TO RETROGRADE. AT THE
SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1034 MB HIGH NW
OF THE AZORES NEAR 45N37W SW ALONG 31N60W THEN ACROSS N FLORIDA.
MODERATE TO STRONG TRADES EXIST S OF THE RIDGE TO THE ITCZ
ALLOWING AREAS OF AFRICAN DUST TO MARCH ACROSS ATLC INTO THE
CARIBBEAN.  LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE
HIGHEST CONCENTRATIONS EXIST E OF EMILY TO 45W WITH A SECOND
AREA EMERGING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA E OF 30W.

$$
RHOME






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