[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 140845
TCDAT5
HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2005

OBSERVATIONS FROM GRENADA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER PASSED OVER THE
ISLAND AROUND 07Z...AT WHICH TIME THE OBSERVING SITE WAS REPORTING
WESTERLY WINDS WITH A PRESSURE OF 993 MB.

AFTER THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION EPISODE OBSERVED YESTERDAY
EVENING...EMILY NOW APPEARS TO BE STRENGTHENING AT A MORE MODERATE
PACE.  THIS WAS SUGGESTED BY CENTRAL PRESSURES FROM THE LAST COUPLE
OF RECON FIXES BETWEEN 04 AND 06Z.  ANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM AROUND 12Z.  SATELLITE
IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME RATHER
SYMMETRICAL WITH FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES.  UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW IS ALSO WELL-DEFINED...AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT PREDICTED
TO BECOME STRONG ALONG THE PATH OF EMILY.  MOREOVER...THE HURRICANE
WILL BE MOVING OVER WATERS OF INCREASINGLY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THUS...STRENGTHENING SEEMS
INEVITABLE.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND...AS NOTED EARLIER...COULD BE
CONSERVATIVE.

BASED ON THE RECON FIXES AND THE GRENADA OBS...THE MOTION NOW
APPEARS TO BE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...285/16.  MY TRACK FORECAST
REASONING IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED FROM THAT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
PACKAGE.  DYNAMICAL MODELS MAINTAIN A LARGE 500 MB RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF EMILY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS SHOULD FORCE A
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  TRACK PREDICTION MODELS
REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DIRECTION OF MOTION BUT
DIFFER ON SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE BUT SOMEWHAT FASTER.  SOME MODELS... SUCH AS THE GFDL
AND GFS...INDICATE AN EVEN FASTER MOTION.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      14/0900Z 12.3N  62.3W    80 KT
 12HR VT     14/1800Z 13.0N  64.7W    85 KT
 24HR VT     15/0600Z 14.0N  68.0W    90 KT
 36HR VT     15/1800Z 15.2N  71.5W    95 KT
 48HR VT     16/0600Z 16.4N  75.0W   100 KT
 72HR VT     17/0600Z 19.0N  82.0W   100 KT
 96HR VT     18/0600Z 21.0N  88.0W    90 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     19/0600Z 22.5N  92.5W   100 KT

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