[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 132100
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2005

REPORTS FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
THAT THE CENTER OF EMILY IS VERY NEAR THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION.  THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OF 62 KT AT 850 MB...AND A DROPSONDE MEASURED SURFACE WINDS OF 50
KT.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 18Z WERE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB...ALTHOUGH SINCE THEN THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN DEEP
CONVECTION.  BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY
WILL REMAIN 50 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 275/16.  IT'S NOT QUITE WEST-NORTHWEST...
BUT IT'S A START.  THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE BASIC FORECAST
REASONING...WITH EMILY EXPECTED TO TAKE A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT REMAINS SOUTH
OF MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE.  THE UKMET HAS SHIFTED WELL TO THE
RIGHT OF ITS PREVIOUS TRACK...ALTHOUGH THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE IS
LITTLE CHANGED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE CENTER OF EMILY WAS PARTIALLY EXPOSED EARLIER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT HAS BECOME OBSCURED AGAIN.  A LOW-LEVEL SURGE IN
THE EASTERLIES OVERTAKING EMILY APPEARS TO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME
MODEST WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE'S CORE...AND MAY ALSO HAVE
CONTRIBUTED TO THE DRY ENVIRONMENT.  NEVERTHELESS...THE LARGE SCALE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS CONTINUE TO
FORECAST EMILY TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.

ALTHOUGH EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AS A
TROPICAL STORM...AREAS AT SIGNIFICANT ELEVATION ABOVE SEA
LEVEL...PARTICULARLY ON GRENADA...COULD EXPERIENCE SOME HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      13/2100Z 11.4N  59.8W    50 KT
 12HR VT     14/0600Z 11.9N  62.3W    60 KT
 24HR VT     14/1800Z 12.8N  65.5W    65 KT
 36HR VT     15/0600Z 13.8N  68.6W    75 KT
 48HR VT     15/1800Z 14.7N  71.7W    85 KT
 72HR VT     16/1800Z 16.5N  78.0W   100 KT
 96HR VT     17/1800Z 18.5N  84.0W   100 KT
120HR VT     18/1800Z 20.0N  89.5W    65 KT...INLAND


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