[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT35 KNHC 131756
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM AST WED JUL 13 2005

...EMILY NOT STRENGTHENING...HURRICANE WARNINGS DOWNGRADED...

AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...ALL HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN REPLACED BY
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS...AND THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR TRINIDAD HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AT 2 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR MARTINIQUE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...TOBAGO...
GRENADA...THE GRENADINES...ST. VINCENT...ST. LUCIA...AND THE
NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO
CUMANA...INCLUDING ISLA MARGARITA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM CUMANA TO CARACAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS
NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 59.0 WEST OR ABOUT
130 MILES... 210 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 150
MILES...240 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF TRINIDAD.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH ...32 KM/HR...AND A WEST
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE PASSING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IT NOW APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT EMILY WILL REACH HURRICANE
STRENGTH BEFORE IT CLEARS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  90 MILES
...150 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
COASTAL AREA OF VENEZUELA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.  THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE PATH OF THE
CENTER.

REPEATING THE 2 PM AST POSITION...11.3 N... 59.0 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


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