[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 131459
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2005

FOR A STORM MOVING WESTWARD AT ALMOST 20 KT...THERE IS A SURPRISING
AMOUNT OF WIND SOUTH OF THE CENTER...WITH THE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT REPORTING UP TO 56 KT AT 850 MB IN THE ACTIVE CONVECTION
IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 57 KT IN
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THESE OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT AT LEAST 45 KT
AT THE SURFACE...AND THE FLIGHT CREW HAS VISUALLY ESTIMATED WINDS
OF 55 KT.  GIVEN THIS...THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 50 KT
SOUNDS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. INCIDENTALLY...THE FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA
CONFIRM THE RAIN-FLAGGED BUT ESSENTIALLY CORRECT QUIKSCAT
OBSERVATIONS IMMEDIATELY SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER IN THE 09Z PASS.

EMILY CONTINUES ON A STUBBORN WESTWARD TRACK...270/17.  THE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FORECAST ALMOST UNANIMOUSLY BY THE TRACK
MODELS HAS NOT DEVELOPED YET.  CLEARLY THERE HAS BEEN MORE RIDGING
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THAN EXPECTED.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS
BOUNDED BY THE GFDL AND UKMET ON THE NORTH...AND NOGAPS ON THE
SOUTH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS ON THE NOGAPS SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF EMILY IS RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE NEAR THE
CORE...AND I PRESUME THAT THE DRY STABLE ENVIRONMENT IS HINDERING
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER...UPPER WINDS ARE STILL
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.  WHILE I HAVE NOT BACKED OFF ON THE
INTENSITY FORECAST...IF EMILY DOES NOT GAIN SOME LATITUDE IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN IT COULD LOSE A SOURCE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
END UP CONSIDERABLY WEAKER THAN FORECAST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      13/1500Z 11.2N  58.1W    50 KT
 12HR VT     14/0000Z 11.5N  60.8W    60 KT
 24HR VT     14/1200Z 12.4N  64.0W    65 KT
 36HR VT     15/0000Z 13.3N  67.0W    75 KT
 48HR VT     15/1200Z 14.2N  70.0W    85 KT
 72HR VT     16/1200Z 16.0N  76.5W   100 KT
 96HR VT     17/1200Z 18.0N  82.5W   100 KT
120HR VT     18/1200Z 19.5N  88.0W    95 KT...INLAND


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